I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the polysilicon market did not continue to rise two weeks after the festival. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the price is back to stability. The bottom rebound is temporarily over. Although the price has not broken through again, the market is still relatively rigid. As of October 18, the average price quoted by domestic enterprises is 63000-67000 yuan / ton, and the current price is about 25% lower than that of last year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 7300-760 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is further narrowed.

II. Market analysis

In the middle of October, the domestic polysilicon market has been in stable operation. After experiencing the slow bull market of “Jinjiu”, the market has entered a stable period at present, with fair supply and demand. On the one hand, the market has sufficient supply and low maintenance rate of large factories, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large. At present, 15 domestic production enterprises are in normal production, and the signing rate of municipal manufacturers is also high. In October The orders of the manufacturers have been exhausted. Most of the manufacturers have signed until November. Recently, there is news in the market that Daquan new energy and Jingke have signed a two-year polysilicon supply agreement. According to the terms of the supply agreement, Daquan new energy will supply 12000 to 14400 tons of polysilicon and 15600 to 21600 tons of polysilicon to Jingke energy in 2020 and 2021, with monthly pricing. Overall, the overall market supply pressure is not big. On the other hand, the cornerstone of stable market supply also relies on the moderate growth of downstream demand. After entering October, downstream demand continues to warm up, and the operating rate of battery manufacturers generally increases compared with that in September. In addition, the capacity expansion and centralized release of downstream silicon rod and silicon wafer increase the demand for polysilicon. At the same time, the new capacity release of domestic polysilicon material ensures the same demand and supply. Step growth. In addition, the price of imported goods has been raised, but influenced by the recent strengthening of RMB exchange rate, the price of RMB converted from import volume denominated in US dollar has remained stable.

In the future, business analysts believe that at present, the polysilicon market is stable, driven by the traditional peak season factor of “silver ten”, and also benefited from the situation of booming market supply and demand. At present, the supply side inventory is not much, and the market can maintain normal purchasing behavior. In the late October, if there is a sudden overhaul of the enterprise, the price is expected to rise, but at the same time We should continue to pay close attention to the downstream operating rate. It is expected that there will be little change in the near future, and the polysilicon market will still be strong for some time.