Price Trend

The domestic BDO market is running smoothly. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the week and the end of the week was 9,200 yuan/ton, which was 21.46% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic BDO market continues to run smoothly. Under the heavy cost pressure, the factory continued its early offer and continued to boost the market. Since mid-late June, some manufacturers have stopped and repaired, and the supply of goods has been reduced. However, the downstream market has not improved and the demand has not increased. Especially, the start-up load of PBT in the main downstream has declined from last week, contract digestion has slowed down again, and the delivery of spot orders is light. Businessmen have an empty mindset, mainly to stabilize the city. Up to now, the mainstream price of East China market is 8400-8900 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week. The domestic BDO market started at 49.8% this week, with a weekly output of about 20735 tons.

In terms of installations, only 30,000 tons per year of Tianye plant in Xinjiang started normal operation this week, while the rest of the plant has not yet been restored; the parking overhaul of Panjin in Changlian on June 20 is expected to last for one month; the parking overhaul of Mike Phase III on July 2 is expected to last about 24 days; and the load of Dongyuan 100,000 tons per year plant in Inner Mongolia is about 60%, scheduled to be overhauled from July 25 to August 15. Repair; Repair from the end of June to the end of July in Yizheng Dalian. No planned changes in other devices were heard.

On the market side, as of Friday (7.19), the BDO market in South China is stable and small. Under the pressure of cost, the factory is in a good mood. Downstream demand contract consumption is the main, spot market small single delivery, the price is in the middle, high-end prices are few. The BDO market in East China is stable. Cost pressures are high, and the willingness of factories to make profits is not strong. However, the downstream demand is not good, the length is about the main, the spot is sporadic, high-end transactions difficult, the focus of gravity is stable.

Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, this week the domestic calcium carbide market has been stable operation, the market trading atmosphere is active. Production enterprises in Inner Mongolia supporting PVC maintenance, supporting calcium carbide export volume increased, resulting in the current Wuhai region relatively adequate supply. Transport, carbide as a dangerous chemical vehicle transportation recently intensified inspection, some enterprises said that the number of loading vehicles decreased, transportation pressure. The downstream Aerospace overhaul has reduced the demand for calcium carbide and accelerated the downstream arrival. It is expected that the supply of the market will be stable in the near future, and the market will continue to be stable in the coming week. Methanol: The market of methanol fell this week. Mainstream prices in Inner Mongolia ranged from 1760 yuan/ton to 1720 yuan/ton this week. Upstream shipments were general. Most of the shipments were purchased from olefins and the length of shipments was about the main factor. The overall inventory of the manufacturers remained on the high side. Guanzhong mainstream price this week from 1880 yuan / ton to 1810 yuan / ton, this week the market fell sharply, arbitrage space opened, manufacturers shipment smoothly, part of the suspension. However, due to the shortage of transport vehicles and high freight rates in the near future, most orders have not been issued, and the inventory of manufacturers has not decreased. The continued decline in futures continued to depress market prices, and most traders were short-sighted on the market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Raw material prices fluctuate narrowly and cost pressures remain strong. The market as a whole started at a low level, with a slight reduction in supply, but the downstream market performance was weak and demand-side support was insufficient. Factory is booming, downstream counter-offer price reduction, supply and demand sides to negotiate saw, high and low-end trading is rarely heard of, the focus of discussion is in the middle. Next week, with the maintenance plant restarting one after another, and the downstream demand is not expected to improve. Businessmen have a pessimistic view of the future market, and a stable market mentality dominates. Business BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will be weak next week, and it will be easy to fall and rise in the long run, unless there is a big improvement in demand, they will continue to pay attention to the changes in supply and demand.