Price Trend
Domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly stable. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregated MDI at the beginning of this weekend was 12 350 yuan/ton, which was 35.45% lower than that of the same period last year.
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II. Market Analysis
Product: This week, the market price of aggregated MDI is stable, and inquiries are just needed. This week’s supply side: Cosmic announced this week’s guidance price of 12,500 yuan/ton, mainly stable; East Cao Ruian this week’s guidance price has not yet been announced, it is known that the supply is relatively tight. Shanghai Basf distillation plant stopped on July 16 for about 7-10 days, with slow delivery. Yantai Wanhua 600,000 tons/year plant has been restarted around July 15. Demand side this week: Influenced by market information from suppliers, there are many inquiries, but the actual quantity of goods still maintains just demand, rational purchasing. Influenced by environmental protection, the overall start-up rate is not high. Later, with the arrival of gold, silver and silver, the demand side may be better. Traders this week: Affected by the slow delivery of manufacturer’s goods, the shortage of goods on hand, along with the market to sell mainly, the actual focus of negotiations moved upward, and the quotation gradually increased. As manufacturers reduce their supply, the supply of MDI series products on the market is on the tight side, and prices are rising. However, demand-side support is insufficient, short-term prices are slightly deadlocked, and transactions are still acceptable.
On the market side, as of Friday (7.19), the aggregated MDI market in North China was on the strong side. Near the weekend, the holder is reluctant to sell mainly, the quotation is stable, just need to close the deal, wait and see next week manufacturers guide prices. The aggregate MDI market in eastern China is on the strong side. There is not a lot of goods in the market, the holders are reluctant to sell, the focus of negotiation price is shifted upward, and the downstream just needs a small order to take goods. The market price of aggregated MDI in South China is on the strong side. The overall inquiry atmosphere of the market is still acceptable, the supply of goods in the market is slightly tense, the quotation of the holder is stable and up-looking, more wait-and-see mood, and the expected price rise in the future market is not enough.
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Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene soared and fell. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of East China Port continued to drop to about 170,000 tons. On the external market, the supply of the United States continues to be tight, and the operators believe that the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea will be open for a long time. The decline of domestic stock and the high level of external market jointly led to the increase of domestic pure benzene quotation to 5600 yuan/ton, which is almost the same as FOB Korea price. However, the domestic downstream has little profit except styrene, strong resistance to high-priced pure benzene, and high selling price is difficult to respond to. Aniline: Within a week, the aniline Market rose. In the North China market, the average tender price of pure benzene for Shandong’s main aniline enterprises increased 300 yuan/ton compared with last week. Aniline profit loss is serious, cost pressures are high; and Jinling Dawang Dongying reduces the burden, reduces the market supply, and slowly reduces the enterprise inventory trend, the price rises.
3. Future Market Forecast
Business Cooperative Viewpoint: With manufacturers reducing supply, the supply of MDI series products on the market is on the tight side, and prices are rising. However, demand-side support is insufficient, short-term prices are slightly deadlocked, and transactions are still acceptable. The aggregate MDI price has increased slightly, and the trading focus has also moved up. The aggregate MDI analysts of business associations expect that the aggregate MDI market price will continue to rise steadily next week.