According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from March 17 to March 24, 2025. On March 24th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6000 yuan/ton, and on March 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15%. This week, the crude oil trend first fell and then rose, with overall fluctuations and an upward trend. The demand for disproportionation and oil blending industries in Shandong region during the week is good, with overall low inventory and stable refinery quotations. The inventory in the East China region is still at a relatively high level, and market sentiment is weak. Overall, the toluene market has shown a stable to weak performance this week.

Cost aspect: Crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards during this cycle. As of the 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.28 per barrel, an increase of $1.73 per barrel compared to the same period last week. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.61 per barrel, up $1.73 per barrel from the same period last week.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of March 24th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6050-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On March 24th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7600 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from March 17th. As of March 21, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $817-819/ton FOB Korea and $842-844/ton CFR China, up $5/ton from March 14.

Market forecast: The crude oil market will rise slightly over the weekend, providing some positive support for the market. In terms of supply, the recent arrival situation in East and South China has been good, with overall high port inventory, which has a certain negative impact on the toluene market. In terms of demand, the demand performance in Shandong region is still acceptable, and prices within the region are relatively stable. The markets in East and South China maintain a high demand for replenishment, with average sales and an overall bearish demand side. Overall, the supply of toluene market has been relatively loose recently, and the spot market is slightly under pressure. It is expected that the market will mainly operate steadily and weakly in the short term.