According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from March 3 to March 10, 2025. On March 3rd, the benchmark price of toluene was 6510 yuan/ton, and on March 10th, the benchmark price of toluene was 64000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69%. This week, the trend of crude oil is weak, and the toluene market is dragged down, resulting in a weak overall market atmosphere. On the supply side, some facilities in Shandong will undergo maintenance this week, while port inventory in East China is relatively high, and overall inventory in the South China market is also high. In terms of demand, Shandong region maintains rigid procurement, while trading in the East China market is light and demand in the South China market is weak. Overall, the demand side is weak.

Cost wise: The crude oil price trend has been weak during this period. As of March 7th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.04 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.36 per barrel. The downward trend in crude oil prices during this cycle is due to the easing of the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine. The United States is considering easing sanctions on Russia, which has reduced potential supply risks. In addition, oil producing countries plan to increase production slightly from April, which has affected the international crude oil market and led to a decline; On the other hand, the imposition of tariffs by the United States has intensified market concerns and may drag down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a decline in the crude oil market.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of March 10th, East China Company quoted 6350 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6400 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6300-6400 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6450 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On March 10th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7600 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units is stable, and sales are normal. As of March 7th, the closing prices of the para xylene market in Asia were $808-810/ton FOB Korea and $833-835/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The recent performance of the crude oil market is weak, providing insufficient support for the market. In terms of supply, the Shandong region has recently experienced weak supply, with high inventory in ports in East and South China, resulting in a bearish supply situation. The overall downstream procurement intention on the demand side is biased towards rigid demand, and there is insufficient follow-up on downstream overall demand, resulting in low procurement intention. Overall, the short-term trend of the toluene market remains weak.