According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the average price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 77460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 2.91% from 79780 yuan/ton at the beginning of February; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China is 74700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 2.48% from 76600 yuan/ton at the beginning of February.

The destocking cycle has ended, and the supply-demand imbalance remains prominent

At present, the lithium carbonate market has sufficient supply, coupled with the resumption of production of the top suspended projects in Yichun, social inventory remains high. According to the latest statistical data, the spot inventory of lithium carbonate is 112500 tons, including 42800 tons in smelters, 29800 tons in downstream inventory, and 40000 tons in other inventories.

The supply of raw materials has increased, resulting in a slight decrease in prices

After the holiday, lithium salt factories and processing plants gradually resumed production, coupled with the start of some new production lines, resulting in a significant increase in supply and increasing pressure.

After the new year, the arrival of port goods will gradually increase the supply of lithium mines. Due to the short-term mismatch between supply and demand, the price of lithium carbonate may rebound and fall back.

Downstream demand and production scheduling have not shown significant improvement, and material factories remain on the sidelines

Before the Spring Festival, downstream material factories made sufficient inventory preparations in advance, and only some manufacturers had a small amount of inventory needs to be replenished. Some material factories have signed long-term agreements with some downstream battery cell factories, continuing the low discount situation of last year. There is currently no clear guidance on production scheduling in March, which has led to weak downstream procurement demand.

Macro perspective: The United States’ containment of Chinese batteries

US President Trump signed an executive order in February 2025 announcing a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods imported to the United States. Combined with the current 3.4% base tariff of the United States on Chinese battery products and the 25% Section 301 tariff on energy storage batteries that will be implemented in 2026 (which already applies to power batteries), the cumulative tariff on Chinese batteries will reach 38.4% under the impact of the new policy. This policy will increase the export costs of Chinese battery companies and reduce their price advantage in the US market. Some companies may face issues such as reduced orders and declining profits.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that downstream battery exports are hindered, coupled with oversupply on the supply side, making lithium carbonate prone to decline but difficult to rise in the near future. Specific market supply and demand news still needs to be monitored.