Analysis: This week (12.23-27), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province showed weak performance, with prices continuing to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.25%. The main reason is that the contradiction of oversupply is difficult to alleviate, and the supply pressure has increased. The early maintenance equipment has been gradually restored, and the operating rate of manufacturers has increased. Coupled with the poor performance of the urea market, some manufacturers have switched to ammonia, which has further exacerbated the contradiction of oversupply in the ammonia market. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2500-2600 yuan/ton.

Prediction: The market enters the traditional off-season, fertilizer procurement cools down, downstream fertilizer factory operating rates significantly decrease, industrial demand follows suit, supply is sufficient, and supply pressure may continue to increase in the later stage. But in the later stage, the market will show regional differentiation. On the one hand, the operating rate will decline with the decrease of prices. In addition, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other places may put pressure on transportation, and local supply may be scarce. Considering all factors, the price of liquid ammonia may still be difficult to improve next week. The main production areas will continue to decline, but some areas may stop falling and stabilize. Local differentiation may bring about price fluctuations.