According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first fell and then rose in November 2024, with an overall downward trend. From November 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5860 yuan/ton to 5800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.02% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the overall focus of the toluene market was relatively low, with the disproportionation industry being the main industry in Shandong. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries was not high, and the overall downstream demand was more rigid. Overall, the toluene market had a strong supply-demand game mentality, with narrow fluctuations in the market trend.

In the second half of the month, the trend of the toluene market slightly increased this week, with an increase in demand for disproportionation and gasoline in Shandong region, supporting the price increase of local refineries. The futures market strengthened, boosting the mentality of the toluene market. Recently, there have been fewer goods arriving at the port, and the port inventory is running at a low level. Overall, the toluene market has slightly rebounded this week, and market sentiment is still positive.

On the cost side: International crude oil maintained a range bound fluctuation trend this cycle, with a wide decline in oil prices by the end of the month. On November 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.94 per barrel, a decrease of $2.30 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, a decrease of $2.16 or 2.9% The crude oil analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the significant drop in oil prices this time is due to the short-term geopolitical risk reduction caused by the ceasefire news. In the later stage, the trend may still return to the supply and demand fundamentals, as the turmoil in the Middle East has not had a greater impact on crude oil supply than expected by the market. In addition, OPEC’s production control policy will continue to play a regulatory role in oil prices. Considering the current low level of oil prices, it is expected that crude oil will not have a significant downward momentum in the short term, but the market should also be cautious about the risks brought by short-term adjustments.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation first fell and then rose during the cycle, with little fluctuation. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable plant production and mostly self use products, resulting in stable production and sales. As of November 29th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 58700-5850 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On November 29th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from October 31st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 28th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 779-781 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 804-806 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to 829-831 US dollars/ton at the end of October.

Market forecast: In the near future, the toluene market will be less affected by crude oil and mainly affected by supply and demand. As the end of the year approaches, negotiations for a new long-term agreement in the market will begin. Currently, there is a strong supply-demand game mentality, and downstream shipments are actively being made. Overall, there is still support on the demand side. It is expected that the toluene market will remain stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations being the main trend.