According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has mainly fluctuated within a range since November. As of November 29th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17027 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% from 16855 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 17221 yuan/ton, and the low point was 16535 yuan/ton.
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The weather in the main production areas of natural rubber continued to improve in early November, and the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign production areas gradually increased. The price of natural rubber raw materials fell, and the heavy rain in Thailand at the end of the month affected the rubber cutting process. The international price of natural rubber raw materials has rebounded. As of November 29th, the price of Thai glue was 69.00 Thai baht/kg, fluctuating within the month range; The purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas in China is 17300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.35% from 17900 yuan/ton at the end of October.
The slight increase in natural rubber inventory in November has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of November 24, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 423500 tons, an increase of 15300 tons from the end of October.
Since November, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of November 29th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.
Market forecast: Currently, the main focus is on consolidating the range of domestic and international raw material supply improvement; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; But the slight increase in Tianjian inventory has brought certain pressure to the market mentality. Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience range fluctuations in the short term, with upstream and downstream games being the main focus.
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