According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from November 18 to 25, 2024. On November 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5660 yuan/ton, and on November 25th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5720 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.06% during the cycle. This week, the trend of the toluene market has slightly increased, with an increase in demand for disproportionation and gasoline in Shandong region, supporting the price increase of local refineries. The futures market has strengthened, boosting the mentality of the toluene market. Recently, there have been fewer goods arriving at the port, and the port inventory is running at a low level. Overall, the toluene market has slightly rebounded this week, and market sentiment is still positive.

Cost wise: As of November 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.23 per barrel. This week, international oil prices fluctuated and rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.31 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated widely, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, weak demand in China, India, and other regions has led to continued concerns in the market about demand, which is bearish for the oil market. The recent geopolitical situation remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 25th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5700-5750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 25th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 18th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of the closing of the Asian xylene market on November 22, the closing prices were 786-788 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 811-813 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 16 US dollars/ton compared to the same period last week.

Market forecast: The recent crude oil market trend is volatile, with mixed negative and positive factors, and insufficient guidance for the toluene market. On the supply side, the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the future, but the supply is unfortunately empty. Although there are some positive factors on the demand side, the support is limited. Overall, the supply and demand sides are mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term due to the supply-demand game.