According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8555 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.33% compared to the beginning of this month (8670 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Lianyungang major factory releases maintenance news, market atmosphere is tense. In late October, Satellite Chemical released the news of a shutdown at the end of October, with a production capacity of 400000 tons per year. In addition, Shangnong Ruiheng’s 400000 tons per year epoxy propane plant maintained low load operation. At the same time, after the start-up of Shandong Jinling, the load increased slowly, and there was no inventory while limited sales. The market supply was tight, and the price of epoxy propane rose sharply at the beginning of the month.

Raw material side: The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine have fluctuated. Although the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the company reduces profits by selling at low prices, resulting in a decrease in actual trading volume. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6770.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream demand for polyether polyols is relatively short, with weak sustainability, and export orders are still acceptable. According to customs data statistics from January to September 2024 and market research in October, the total export volume of polyether polyols in 2024 is significantly higher than that in 2023. Overall, downstream new orders are mainly for urgent procurement, with smooth factory scheduling and no pressure on shipments.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although there is some support for raw material prices, the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement, and the transmission of supply and demand is not smooth, resulting in mixed ups and downs of epoxy propane. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will be mainly volatile, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.