1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 831 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was around 833 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 4.26%. On September 5th, the chemical index was 851 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 39.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 42.31% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 In terms of market conditions

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 810-860 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 880-950 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2300-2350 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali.

3、 Supply side

This week, caustic soda inventory was low. Data shows that as of September 5, 2024, the inventory of liquid alkali sample enterprises with a capacity of 200000 tons or more in the country was 286900 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.61% compared to the previous period. The maintenance of some facilities in Shandong region has played a significant role in boosting market prices.

4、 In terms of demand

This week, downstream alumina prices continued to show a stable to strong trend. Some aluminum plants that have a demand for replenishment have concentrated their purchases in the market, driving the price of caustic soda to continue to rise. Alumina continues to be in a tight pattern, and it is expected that there will still be a demand for replenishing caustic soda in the later stage.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 35th week of 2024 (August 26-8.30), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: caustic soda (2.60%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are: calcium carbide (-1.25%), baking soda (-0.69%), and PVC (-0.19%). The average increase or decrease this week is 0.08%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has risen and the inventory in the Shandong region has remained relatively low. Coupled with some downstream purchasing intentions increasing, there will be a slight increase in supply in Shandong next week. However, downstream demand, except for alumina, is average. The comprehensive supply and demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.