According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 9th to August 16th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 12425 yuan/ton to 12450 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.2% during the period. This week, the butadiene market experienced narrow fluctuations, with a slight rebound in market prices, but the magnitude was limited. During the week, some enterprises in Shandong region suspended their export plans, which led to a slight rebound in spot market prices in the region and indirectly affected the slight increase in market quotes in East China. However, downstream market demand has remained lukewarm, providing limited support for market sentiment, resulting in limited gains this week. As of August 16th, the self pickup price of butadiene in East China is around 12250 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The ex factory price of Sinopec remains unchanged at 12500 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: During this cycle, the international crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. As of August 15th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.16 per barrel, an increase of $1.18 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $81.04 per barrel, an increase of $1.28 or 1.6%.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains stable at 12500 yuan/ton. The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th and is scheduled to restart at the end of August; The second unit of Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical has been restarted in June. The butadiene and downstream butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical will shut down simultaneously and are expected to restart by the end of August. Recently, there has been little change in the comprehensive operating rate in China, and this week it has remained stable with a slight increase. Currently, the supply of butadiene in China is relatively stable.

On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market continued to weaken this week, and due to the impact of low corporate profits, the production of butadiene rubber continued to remain low; Downstream tire production has slightly declined, overall inquiries are cautious, and there is resistance to high priced sources, resulting in flat market trading. The downstream terminal market maintains a strong demand for raw material butadiene and has a strong resistance to high priced sources of goods. As of August 15th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69% from 14750 yuan/ton on August 5th. The ex factory price of Shunding rubber from PetroChina Northeast Sales Company is 14200 yuan/ton, and currently the mainstream market price for Shunding in Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China is 14300-14550 yuan/ton. At present, the demand performance is weak, and the demand support for the butadiene market is insufficient.

On Thursday (August 15th), the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was partially lowered: the FOB price in South Korea was reported at $1465-1475 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton; China’s CFR report is $1475-1485 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1175-1185/ton, unchanged; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1105-1115 euros/ton, unchanged.

Market forecast: The overall supply of butadiene in the domestic market is relatively stable in the near future, but there will be some shipping schedules arriving in the East China region, which will have a certain impact on the market atmosphere. From the perspective of demand, downstream companies have always maintained a strong demand for replenishment, while synthetic rubber enterprises have been affected by declining profits, resulting in a significant lack of purchasing enthusiasm in recent times and a wait-and-see market atmosphere. Overall, the recent performance of the butadiene market has been weak in both supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the downstream market’s receiving situation and arrival shipping schedule.