In the first half of 2024, the market price of nylon filament fluctuated, and the overall market price center rose.
| Thiourea |
In the early first quarter and early second quarter, the market price of nylon filament showed an upward trend. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of raw materials have continued to rise, coupled with high enthusiasm for downstream market procurement and good support from the demand side. Both the cost side and demand side support are strong, resulting in a significant increase in the market price of nylon filament. In the second quarter, downstream demand was still acceptable, but some sources of goods were tight and the increase was significant.
The market price of nylon filament fell in the late first and second quarters. In the later part of the first quarter, due to the high prices of raw materials in the market after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream markets resumed work late, and on-site transactions were not ideal, resulting in a significant decline in prices; In the later part of the second quarter, the raw material market experienced sluggish shipments and price declines. The downstream market gradually entered the off-season, with a continuous decrease in new orders on site and a pessimistic atmosphere in the market. As a result, prices in the nylon filament market narrowly declined.
Price trend in the first half of the year
The overall price of nylon filament market has slightly increased in the first half of 2024. As of June 30th, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 19220 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton or 1.69% compared to the beginning of the year; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16850 yuan/ton, an increase of 425 yuan/ton or 2.59% from the beginning of the year; The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 20225 yuan/ton, an increase of 575 yuan/ton or 2.93% from the beginning of the year
quotations analysis
At the beginning of the year, the settlement price of Sinopec Caprolactam (raw material for nylon filament) was raised multiple times, and the market for high-speed spinning of PA6 slices continued to rise, with cost support gradually increasing. In addition, downstream markets were still actively stocking up before the Spring Festival, and the trading atmosphere in the market improved. Supported by dual positive factors, the price of nylon filament market steadily increased.
After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, terminal demand recovered less than expected. Downstream manufacturers returned to work late, accumulated inventory, and limited demand for raw materials. It was not ideal to buy the raw material end of superposed nylon filament at a high price. The price decline continued. The market lacked good news to boost it, and the price of nylon filament fell in a stepwise manner.
Entering April, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene in the market fluctuated at high levels, while the prices of PA6 slices in the conventional spinning slice market were tight and rising, driving the price of caprolactam in the spot market to rebound and stop falling. The weekly closing price of caprolactam by Sinopec continued to rise, with strong cost support; In terms of demand, downstream domestic market equipment production remains at a high level, with strong demand and decent foreign trade business. The overall performance of the demand side is good, and the signing of orders in the nylon filament market is good. The inventory levels of various manufacturers continue to decline, and some models are out of stock. The favorable factors in the market have the upper hand, and the price of nylon filament market has skyrocketed.
In June, due to the gradual entry of the end market into the off-season of demand, the demand side showed weak performance, and the transactions of raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 chips were not ideal, resulting in loose prices and insufficient cost support. The bearish sentiment in the market increased, and the speed of nylon filament market sales slowed down, leading to a downward trend in prices.
Supply, Inventory, and Demand Analysis
The market output of nylon filament in the first half of 2024 is about 1.44 million tons, an increase of 18.36% year-on-year. Since the beginning of the year, most of the nylon filament manufacturers have maintained high load operation, and the supply on site is relatively sufficient.
The overall inventory level of nylon filament market in the first half of 2024 has significantly decreased. In the first half of 2024, there will be strong demand in the downstream market, with no pressure on sales in the nylon filament market and a focus on delivering more orders. The inventory of various manufacturers will continue to decrease, and some models will be in short supply. However, during the Spring Festival period, logistics were suspended, and inventory in the nylon filament market slightly accumulated. After resuming work, the overall inventory level in the market entered a downward trend. At present, the overall inventory of nylon filament market is at a low level, and the supply of some models is still tight.
In the early stage of the Spring Festival, there was good demand from end-users, and downstream manufacturers had a good pre holiday stocking mood. The demand side support was still acceptable; Entering the second quarter, downstream manufacturers maintained high machine operating rates and had strong demand for raw materials. Since the “Silver Fourth” event, the domestic market has mainly focused on rigid procurement, but foreign trade business has improved and overall market demand has shown strong performance; Entering June, there are signs of weakening demand, and downstream markets are following up with multi-dimensional rigid demand small orders, making the off-season characteristics of the market increasingly evident.
Future forecast
Cost aspect: In terms of raw material caprolactam, there has been some expansion in the supply capacity of caprolactam, but downstream demand will increase. It is expected that the caprolactam market will show a slight upward trend in the second half of the year.
Supply side: Some manufacturers of nylon filament are gradually releasing new production capacity, so it is expected that the supply of nylon filament on site will increase in the second half of the year, but it will not have a significant impact on market prices.
On the demand side: Strong rigid demand, entering the off-season of demand in July and August, the on-site demand may continue to be light. However, if entering the “Golden September and Silver October” downstream demand for nylon filament may increase, coupled with the strong confidence of industry players in export business, it is expected that the favorable support from the demand side will still exist in the second half of the year.
Overall, there are upward expectations in the raw material caprolactam market and PA6 slice market, with some favorable support on the cost side; The nylon filament market currently has low inventory levels and no inventory pressure at present; Downstream market demand is expected to turn from weak to strong, and analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the overall price of nylon filament market will slightly rise in the second half of the year, showing seasonal characteristics.
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