According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling this week (April 15-19). As of April 19, the average market price in East China was 5948 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to the beginning of the week.

This week was mainly affected by cost factors. In the early stage, the geopolitical situation was tense, and European and American crude oil futures rose to a new six month high. In addition, multiple sets of PX devices were shut down unexpectedly, and the cost side trend was strong, pushing up the PTA market. However, as the geopolitical situation eased, crude oil prices fell. At the same time, PTA devices restarted, and new production capacity produced qualified products, making PTA supply sufficient, and PTA spot prices fell.

Looking at the future market, the current environment for crude oil is relatively complex, and the performance of oil prices is also relatively stagnant and anxious. As of April 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at $82.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was reported at $87.11 per barrel. Macro and demand are suppressing oil prices in the short term, and the space for further upward movement of oil prices is being suppressed. In addition, given that the current geopolitical tensions have not escalated, crude oil has the potential to mitigate risk premiums and reshape valuation expectations. But the risk has not been lifted, coupled with the start of the North American driving season, gasoline demand is expected to rise, which will provide support for oil prices. Overall, the supply and demand game in the oil market will intensify in the short term, and there is a greater possibility of oil prices maintaining high volatility.

There are still some maintenance plans for PX devices in Asia, but Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical, with a total of 4.5 million tons of devices, will resume operation. Therefore, the overall supply of PX is gradually recovering, and the demand side is performing well due to the expected restart and load increase of PTA factories. It is necessary to be cautious of the announcement of subsequent maintenance arrangements for some PTA factories. The high inventory situation of domestic PX continues, and prices are expected to fall and consolidate.

PTA’s own supply will also increase. Jiatong Energy may restart a 2.5 million ton PTA unit on April 23, while Yisheng Dalian’s 2.25 million ton PTA unit is currently operating at around 80%, with plans to increase load starting next week. In addition, there are currently no other planned large-scale PTA device maintenance or restarts, and attention still needs to be paid to unplanned maintenance.

At present, the operating load of the downstream polyester industry is stable around 90%, and the order performance is average. Some weaving and texturing factories may purchase goods appropriately, but their willingness to accept high priced raw materials is low, and they still have a wait-and-see attitude. The polyester filament factory has a strong Poly Run mentality, with a weak trading atmosphere and a stable to weak market transaction focus. Cotton mills still have a strong demand for polyester staple fibers, but weak terminal demand is dragging down market sentiment, with small purchases being the main focus.

Business Society analysts believe that the focus of cost support is weakening, high PTA inventory makes spot supply sufficient, and downstream demand is average. Therefore, in the short term, PTA fundamentals are difficult to be optimistic, and prices may continue to adjust weakly.