In the first quarter of 2024, the price center of the domestic adhesive short fiber market shifted upwards. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the overall price of adhesive short fiber increased significantly in the first quarter of 2024. As of March 31st, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13540 yuan/ton, an increase of 640 yuan/ton from the beginning of the quarter, with a quarterly increase of 4.96%.
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In January 2024, the market price of upstream raw material and main material dissolved slurry remained stable and increased, while the market price of auxiliary material liquid alkali skyrocketed. The sulfuric acid market reversed, and the cost side was well supported; The transaction atmosphere in the downstream cotton yarn market is gradually improving, and the inventory of yarn factories has significantly decreased. The demand for raw materials has increased, and favorable support from the demand side is gradually emerging; Supported by multiple positive news, the inventory of adhesive short fiber manufacturers is tight, and the sentiment of price support is strong. The market price of adhesive short fiber is steadily rising, and by the return of the Spring Festival holiday, the market price of adhesive short fiber has risen to the highest point of 13560 yuan/ton this year. At the end of the season, downstream market demand did not recover as expected, and the new round of signing was not ideal. The actual transaction prices in the market declined, and the market price of adhesive short fibers declined narrowly. As of March 31, the domestic ex factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fibers was 13540 yuan/ton.
Supply analysis
In the first quarter of 2024, the overall supply of adhesive short fibers decreased narrowly compared to the previous quarter. During the season, the equipment of adhesive short fiber manufacturers in Xinjiang region was shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain; The equipment of the adhesive short fiber manufacturer in Jiangxi region has undergone load reduction maintenance and has now resumed full load operation; The equipment of the adhesive short fiber manufacturer in Shandong region has been partially shut down for maintenance and has not been restarted yet. The overall operating rate of the market has declined, with the industry’s daily operating rate at around 80.23%.
requirement analysis
In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for adhesive short fibers in the market turned from strong to weak. At the beginning of the season, the trading atmosphere in the human cotton yarn market gradually improved, and inventory decreased by about average. In addition, as the Spring Festival approached, manufacturers had a good enthusiasm for stocking up before the holiday, and the demand side support was strong. On site orders were mostly signed until mid March; With the return of the Spring Festival, downstream yarn factories have resumed work slowly. In addition, the high prices of raw materials have increased, and manufacturers have insufficient acceptance of high priced raw materials. They mainly consume early inventory, and the demand side has recovered less than expected. In mid March, a new round of contract signing ended, and downstream factories have maintained on-demand procurement. On site orders have only been maintained for about a month.
Cost profit analysis
In the first quarter of 2024, the average production cost and profit of viscose staple fibers increased narrowly compared to the previous quarter. In the first quarter, the market price of domestically produced dissolved pulp rose from a low point, with an average price of 7450 yuan/ton; The liquid alkali market first fell and then rose, with an average price of 853 yuan/ton; The average price of sulfuric acid is 193 yuan/ton. Overall, the average production cost of viscose staple fiber has increased narrowly, and the price of viscose staple fiber has increased significantly. The profit of the viscose staple fiber industry has turned from loss to profit.
market forecast
Cost side: Currently, the upstream raw material prices are showing a strong trend, providing some positive support for the market. It is expected that the cost side prices of viscose short fibers will not fluctuate significantly in the next quarter, which will have limited impact on market prices.
Supply side: Currently, the overall production of adhesive short fibers in the market remains at a high level, with low inventory from manufacturers. The supply side is performing well, and the industry’s parking and maintenance equipment may restart in the next quarter. It is expected that the market supply will slightly increase in the next quarter.
On the demand side: Currently, there is a shortage of orders in the downstream market, manufacturers are not shipping smoothly, inventory has accumulated, and there is a weak intention to replenish raw materials. More purchases are made on demand, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the demand side in the next quarter.
Overall, the current downstream market demand is weak, and the signing of orders by adhesive short fiber manufacturers is not ideal. In order to promote downstream stocking, manufacturers may lower their prices. However, adhesive short fiber manufacturers have low inventory, coupled with high raw material cost prices, the market price decline is limited. Therefore, analysts from Business Society predict that the market price of adhesive short fiber will decline narrowly in the future.
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