According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic BDO market showed a warm and fluctuating trend in February. From February 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 9421 yuan/ton to 9428 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.08% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 0.23%. The price decreased by 32.65% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there are no significant fluctuations in the equipment, and the supplier’s intention to maintain prices continues. However, most downstream industries have experienced a decline in production, resulting in a decrease in BDO consumption of raw materials, delivery of contract orders, and limited availability of spot goods for negotiation.

In the first week of returning from the Spring Festival holiday, although some regions have delayed transportation and high online bidding, there is inventory waiting to be digested in both upstream and downstream, and the market lacks obvious positive support. Spot trading is light, and the focus is weak and stagnant.

As the end of the month approaches, some production enterprises have slightly increased their bidding prices, boosting the market atmosphere. Traders and downstream players are not very enthusiastic, and many of them are in urgent need of purchasing. The focus of the domestic BDO market is stagnant.

Supply side: According to the current known maintenance plan, BDO will start operating at around 60% load in March.

On the cost side, raw materials for calcium carbide: After the holiday, with the rainy and snowy weather in most northern regions, logistics continued to be hindered, leading to a significant increase in enterprise inventory. Many enterprises reduced their operating rates to alleviate the pressure of losses, while downstream enterprises encountered a situation of insufficient replenishment. Transportation gradually eased after the holiday, and factory inventory decreased significantly. Terminals gradually arrived, and market transactions heated up. However, overall market prices are still not optimistic. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market saw a high consolidation in February, with a monthly increase of 6.18%. Recently, the calcium carbide market has been operating at a low level, while the methanol market has been mainly consolidating at a high level. The cost of BDO is mixed.

On the demand side, March will enter the traditional peak season stage, and the main downstream PTMEG will continue to operate at high loads. With the restart of the downstream spandex reduction device after the holiday, demand gradually rebounds. Coupled with cost pressure, PTMEG manufacturers have a strong attitude towards stabilizing prices. The second largest downstream PBT has returned after the holiday, and with the support of cost side PTA, the market has rebounded, and supply has not fully returned to normal levels. Driven by the resumption of downstream work and strong costs, demand for another major downstream PBAT is slowly increasing. The demand for raw materials in the GBL, PU, and TPU sectors is expected to increase after the resumption of downstream operations at the terminal.

In terms of price, according to statistics, the prices of BDO downstream have increased to varying degrees after the holiday.

In the future market forecast, overall, under the maintenance plan of multiple manufacturers, BDO’s supply has significantly decreased, while demand has gradually rebounded to pre holiday normal levels downstream of the terminal, and the market demand is expected to warm up in the later period. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market is expected to break through.