According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated and increased in November. Urea prices increased from 2530.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2586.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.55% at the end of the month.

On November 28th, the urea commodity index was 120.31, an increase of 0.31 points from yesterday, a decrease of 21.02% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 116.38% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated in November.

Cost side: The upstream market has significantly increased

The price of liquefied natural gas increased significantly in November, from 5140.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5686.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.62%, and a year-on-year increase of 37.81% at the end of the month. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washed fast) has slightly decreased, dropping from 1290 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1110 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia first rose and then fell, rising from 3916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4006.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.30%. The highest point was 4333.33 yuan/ton on November 17th, with a maximum increase of 10.64%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 2.20% year-on-year. Overall, there are ups and downs in the upstream urea market, with average cost support.

On the demand side, the price of melamine has slightly increased

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agricultural sporadic fertilization. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is average, and their enthusiasm for purchasing urea is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. The price of melamine slightly increased in November, from 7175.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7325.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.09%. From a supply perspective, maintenance companies have started to resume production and repair, with a daily urea production of around 180000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Looking ahead, the urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early December. The prices of anthracite and liquefied natural gas fluctuate, with average cost support. The daily production of urea is about 180000 tons, with sufficient supply. The demand for agriculture has weakened, with industrial demand being the main focus. In the future, urea may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.