According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 13th to 20th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 6825 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.37%, a month on month decrease of 2.68%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.30%. The signing of new orders in the market is lackluster, and with stable supply, the demand side is unlikely to improve. Due to weather conditions, transportation is limited, and ethanol market prices are traded at the low end.

In terms of cost, as we enter mid November, the market volume of corn in the production area continues to increase, and the domestic corn market supply continues to rebound. The high yield of new season corn has become a foregone conclusion. Downstream trade entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for feed in the breeding industry continues to be sluggish. In addition, imported corn continues to arrive in Hong Kong, and the domestic corn market supply is relatively loose. The overall price of corn in the market is under pressure and fluctuates weakly. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 30.74% operating in East China and 89.10% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in the southern and western regions is 11.52%. In the short term, the domestic ethanol production in Northeast China is stable or slightly increasing, and small factories have plans to start production. The operating rate in East China fluctuates at a low level. The operating rate of coal to ethanol remains stable in the short term. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in November. Other chemical products require procurement. The demand for Baijiu is average. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and there are significant regional differences in supply and demand. Another round of snowfall is coming, which will affect the circulation speed of goods and the increase in freight rates in the main production areas of Northeast China. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be mainly volatile.