1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of November 3rd, the spot nickel quotation was 147900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 26.6%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen by 8% and risen by 3%, and the recent decline in nickel prices is still unstoppable.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, in the early hours of this Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to maintain interest rates unchanged during the interest rate meeting, but Powell’s speech was hawkish. After the meeting, US stocks rebounded significantly, and oil prices also fell after the Federal Reserve meeting, reaching a three-week low. This is mainly due to market concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth and concerns about an oversupply of crude oil. In addition, trade tensions have also put some pressure on oil prices. The US dollar and US bond yields have declined, and data released on Wednesday showed an increase in job vacancies in the US in September, indicating a continued tightening of the labor market, which has played a supportive role in the economy. On the domestic side, the latest PMI data for the manufacturing industry in October, which is lower than the boom and bust line, indicates that the recovery trend of the manufacturing industry is still difficult to be optimistic, and market demand is insufficient. On November 2, the central bank and foreign exchange heavyweights spoke out, insisting on deepening financial reform, maintaining and increasing market liquidity, boosting market confidence, and internal metal prices fluctuated.

In terms of supply: Indonesia has increased production capacity for intermediate products and nickel plates, continuously releasing domestic electrolytic nickel production capacity, gradually expanding production reduction efforts in steel mills, and reducing inventory pressure.

In terms of demand: The overall downstream demand is relatively weak, and nickel sulfate is currently in a weak market.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

In summary, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged, easing market tension, and the weakening US dollar has boosted the non-ferrous metal market. However, nickel supply is loose, downstream steel mills are reducing production, and demand is weak. It is expected that nickel prices will remain weak in the short term.