Price trend

In October, the domestic ABS market stabilized after a decline, and spot prices of various brands fluctuated after being adjusted. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the average price of ABS sample products was 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.5% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The high load in the ABS industry in the early stage continued, resulting in abundant supply of goods on the site, a significant increase in inventory positions, and poor profitability of the enterprise, resulting in losses. After a month of gradual negative reduction, the domestic operating rate has decreased by nearly 20% to 72%, and the dragging effect of the supply side on the spot market has decreased. The supply pressure has slightly eased.

In terms of raw materials: In October, the overall decline of ABS upstream three materials was significant, with a slight decline in the acrylonitrile market during the early high operating period and a slight decline in the later period. The price of raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, and the cost support for acrylonitrile weakened; The main downstream construction has significantly declined, and demand has weakened in the face of acrylonitrile support; In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile prices remained strong due to low inventory levels and cost support, but in the latter half of the month, prices slightly declined as demand weakened.

In October, the domestic butadiene market first fell and then rose. After the holiday, crude oil prices fell sharply and the market was once weak. In the middle of the day, the price of the external market rose, and the export window boosted the market atmosphere. At the same time, some devices were parked out of plan, resulting in a reduction in market supply. Adding to the maintenance plans of some enterprises at the end of the month, the factory prices of production enterprises have continuously increased, and the butadiene market has continued to rise.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fell in October. The main reason for the decline is the international crude oil price drop, the pure benzene market fluctuating and falling, and the cost support is average. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, production and sales profits are reduced, spot transactions are poor, and there is an expectation of styrene inventory accumulation. It is expected that the market may continue to decline.

In terms of demand: In October, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, saw a decrease in stocking enthusiasm, and the inventory digestion during the early peak season further dragged down trading. After the fall in ABS prices in late October, a portion of the stock was released for immediate needs, with the demand side mainly focused on maintaining production and providing poor support to the market.

Future Market Forecast

In October, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS rose and fell, with weak overall support for the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of the petrochemical plant has dropped, and some supply pressures have eased. Demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market may maintain a weak and stable consolidation trend in the short term.