1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 23, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7969.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73% compared to October 16 at 8109.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7850-8000 yuan/ton.

As of October 23, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 7899.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% compared to October 16 at 8039.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7750-7950 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for refined naphtha has declined, and the gasoline and diesel markets have entered the off-season. The restructuring lacks substantial benefits, and a small amount of demand for ethylene cracking has been released. The overall demand for naphtha terminals is weak, with sluggish trading and refineries reducing prices for shipments.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. On a macro level, the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate hikes may be suspended in November, easing demand concerns. On the supply side, the market’s focus is on the conflict between Palestine and Israel. The Islamic world’s resistance to Israel has escalated, and Iran’s foreign minister has called for an oil embargo on Israel, which has led to geopolitical turmoil and increased the risk premium for crude oil. In addition, the United States’ agreement to lift sanctions exemptions for Venezuela for six months has not quelled supply side tensions.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7130 yuan/ton on October 23, a decrease of 8.24% compared to 7770 yuan/ton on October 16; The price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7510 yuan/ton on October 23, a decrease of 5.42% compared to 7940 yuan/ton on October 16. The price trend of PX is temporarily stable, and as of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of xylene is 9100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, and the gasoline and diesel markets have entered the off-season. There is no significant positive trend in the local refining naphtha terminal, and market trading is cautious. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market will slightly decline in the near future.