1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 16th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8109.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% from October 6th at 8269.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

As of October 16th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 8039.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.83% compared to October 6th at 8189.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-8100 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for refined naphtha has been fluctuating and declining. Terminal restructuring is just needed to release, and a small amount of demand for ethylene cracking is released. However, merchants mainly consume inventory. During the National Day holiday, international crude oil has significantly declined, and the post holiday crude oil market volatility has intensified the wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic naphtha market. The market is just in need of trading, and operations are cautious.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. Affected by geopolitical turmoil, supply concerns have intensified. On the macro level, the resilience of US economic data has raised expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and the negative sentiment still exists. On the supply side, the market’s focus is on the conflict between Palestine and Israel. Israel and Palestine are not oil producing areas, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has not yet affected the actual supply of crude oil. Concerns have slightly eased. In the short term, the situation on the mainland is volatile, and oil prices may intensify volatility, with an increase in amplitude.

Downstream: According to monitoring by Business Society, the price of toluene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7770 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 5.36% compared to 8210 yuan/ton on October 6th; The price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7940 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 6.48% compared to 8490 yuan/ton on October 6th. The trend of PX has declined, with a factory price of 9100 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 4.21% compared to the price of 9500 yuan/ton on October 6th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, and there is no significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Market trading is cautious, with demand being the main focus. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be mainly weak in the near future.