According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market in August saw a unilateral upward trend. From August 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11042 yuan/ton to 11628 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.30% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 14.29%.

At the beginning of the month, some production enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, agent replacement, and load reduction, resulting in a decrease in the overall industry load and a certain positive supply side inventory. Factories and traders were reluctant to sell their spot goods in the market. Downstream industries maintain contract follow-up, limited and negotiated spot purchases, and limited gains.

In the first half of this month, the industry’s production capacity utilization rate is currently low, and the market’s spot supply is tight. Production enterprises are reluctant to sell, and online bidding is on the high side of the market. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and under cost pressure, it tends to be cautious, suppressing market growth.

In mid month, due to the impact of device maintenance, the industry’s operating rate remained at a low level, and the mentality of being reluctant to sell spot goods continued. However, the downstream demand of the terminal is generally followed up, and there is resistance to high priced raw materials, leading to a stalemate in market trading and consolidation stage.

Towards the end of the month, although the early maintenance devices have been restarted one after another, the inventory pressure on the production enterprises is controllable, and the intention to support the market is strong, which helps to promote the bidding premium transaction. However, at the beginning of the new settlement cycle, the downstream buying of gas at the terminal is average, with contract procurement being the main focus, spot procurement being light, and the market’s focus consolidating.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: In August, the domestic calcium carbide market continued to be at a high level, and coal mine safety inspections boosted the rise of raw materials. Upstream blue charcoal showed a situation of easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the calcium carbide market continued to show regional adjustments, exacerbating the shortage of goods. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market experienced high volatility in August, with a monthly increase of 4.07%. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to rise, and the cost of BDO has continued to be positive.

On the demand side, the PTMEG industry’s Blue Mountain Tunhe and Yanchang petroleum units continue to undergo maintenance, the Ningxia Xiaoxing chemical plant is restarted, and the Huaheng plant is put into operation and trial run, with little change in raw material digestion. The PBT industry has a load of less than 50%, with factory contract procurement being the main focus and spot tracking being average; The TPU production in the polyurethane field has increased, and the PU slurry industry is operating steadily, with a slight increase in raw material digestion. The PBAT industry’s load remains low. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, there is still some support on the supply side, but the downstream end has limited ability to accept high prices. Contract orders are mainly followed up, while spot orders are generally followed up, or market trends may be suppressed. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly be sorted out.