1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 737.4 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 742 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.62% and a decrease of 31.3% compared to the same period last year. On August 3rd, the chlor alkali index was 981 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 53.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 37.78% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of domestic caustic soda has stabilized and operated this week. The current average market price in Shandong region is around 690-750 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for 32% liquid alkali in Hebei region is around 690-900 yuan/ton. The overall price of caustic soda has not changed much this week, and the overall supply of manufacturers has not changed much. In terms of downstream alumina, the main downstream suppliers have lowered their procurement prices, resulting in average short-term demand and more on-demand procurement. The supply and demand game maintains a weak operating market for caustic soda prices.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 30th week of 2023 (7.24-7.28), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 1 product that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have increased include: light soda ash (2.00%), PVC (1.99%), and flake soda ash (1.17%); The main commodities falling include hydrochloric acid (-5.45%), baking soda (-0.39%), and caustic soda (-0.35%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.15%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and there is currently no positive support from the supply side. Downstream alumina still purchases more on demand in the near future. The mentality of the industry is average, and the supply and demand game is expected to consolidate the operating market in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.