According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. From June 1st to 29th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market remained at 2161 yuan/ton, with a balanced price increase and decrease during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.52%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market was weak and the support for methanol production costs was weakened. The Baofeng plant was restored, and the supply in mainland China increased. Additionally, the local formaldehyde load was reduced, resulting in a decrease in methanol demand. As prices decline, traders and downstream sentiment weaken accordingly.

In the first half of this month, the domestic methanol market continued to decline, with coal prices falling, and support for methanol production costs weakening. Traditional demand entered the off-season and demand was weak. At the same time, some methanol parking devices were restored, and new investment devices such as Xuzhou Longxingtai and Jiyang New Energy had production plans in the near future. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient.

In the second half of this month, the domestic methanol market was in a weak state of consolidation. With the arrival of high temperature weather, there were signs of stabilizing coal prices on the cost side, but there was no significant improvement in the demand side, and the methanol cost side remained relatively empty. At the same time, the supply continues to increase, inventory is expected to continue to increase, and market confidence is insufficient. Downstream and traders mainly purchase according to demand.

Towards the end of the month, the domestic methanol market has rebounded. The narrow upward trend in raw coal prices provides some support for methanol prices. At the same time, some downstream devices are operating and actively replenishing goods, driving some demand. At the same time, some major industrial enterprises are undergoing equipment maintenance, resulting in a gradual depletion of social inventory and a decrease in port inventory. Overall, there are many positive factors.

By the end of June 29, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had risen. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2114 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2170 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2114 yuan/ton. It closed at 2144 yuan/ton in the late trading session, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 2.88% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2134258 hands, the position was 1925785 hands, and the daily increase was 144852.

On the cost side, some coal mine production tasks have been completed and production has been suspended, and the overall coal supply has been tightened. Most coal mines in the Shaanxi region maintain normal production and overall supply is basically stable. Some coal mines have undergone centralized and continuous price reductions, and the transportation situation has slightly improved, while the price adjustment at the pit mouth has been relatively tightened. Coal prices have rebounded in a narrow range, but downstream demand has not significantly increased, terminal restocking willingness is not strong, and actual market trading volume is limited. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.

Demand side, downstream MTBE: Debao Road and Dongming Qianhai have plans to start construction recently, and MTBE demand may increase; Downstream acetic acid: Guangxi Huayi will resume full load, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; The demand for formaldehyde and dimethyl ether may not change significantly. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, middling coal Yanchang, Inner Mongolia Dongri, Wangcang Hezhong Chemical, Shanxi and Henan each have a set of devices for maintenance; Shanxi Yueanda, Guangxi Huayi, Shenhua Mengxi, Anhui Linhuan, Hengxin High tech, and Shaanxi Weihua units have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 28th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $289.00- $291.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 72.00-74.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 207.00-209.00 euros per ton, a decrease of 5 euros per ton.

In the future, the cost support is expected to be average in the short term, but the supply side is expected to show some positive results. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to rise.