According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated at a low level in June. From June 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 6587 yuan/ton to 6497 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.37% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 13.17%.

At the beginning of the month, after the price fluctuations in May, there was no significant improvement in demand, and the ethanol market atmosphere continued to be weak. In mid month, due to weak supply and demand, the ethanol market continued to operate at a low level, with slight differences in different regions. The overall demand for downstream chemical products is still flat, with most production still based on orders and profits, and the main demand for ethanol is replenishment. In the latter part of the month, there was sufficient supply in some regions, and production enterprises continuously lowered their prices. The market atmosphere was affected by this and the market atmosphere was relatively low. The overall supply still exceeds the demand, and it is slightly adjusted based on cost prices.

On the cost side, corn prices have fluctuated and risen. Factors such as domestic high temperatures, malt substitution, and an increase in imports have led to weak demand, poor profits in deep processing and aquaculture. However, due to the sustained low demand at the grassroots level, the market supply has shrunk, and the spot price of corn has maintained a strong trend of volatility. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shangye Society, on June 27th, the benchmark price of Shangye Society corn was 2727.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22% compared to the beginning of this month (2694.29 yuan/ton). The cost side of ethanol is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, as of the end of June, the ethanol market has been operating steadily with increasing supply in Northeast China. The operating load of the equipment is relatively high, and in June, the operating load in Northeast China continued to be at a high level. The factories of Hongzhan Laha (second line), Guotou Fukang, COFCO Zhaodong, and Henan underwent quarterly maintenance, and Shenglong started operating. The supply mainly continued to be at a high load. Negative impact on ethanol supply side.

On the demand side, downstream large factories mainly focus on stable procurement, while just in demand procurement is the main focus. The demand for fine chemical products is stable. The weather is gradually hot, the demand for Baijiu is gradually narrowing, and the short-term demand for ethanol is negative.

Future market forecast shows limited cost support and weak downstream demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market will be sluggish in the short term.