1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data from Business News Agency, as of March 31, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7636.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.31% compared to 8239.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local refined and hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated downward.

According to the latest monitoring data from the Business News Agency, as of March 31, the mainstream factory price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7604.00 yuan/ton, down 6.66% from 8146.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and locally refined straight-run naphtha fluctuated downward.

The naphtha commodity index on March 31 was 94.25, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 22.52% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and up 123.13% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: In March, the overall price of refined naphtha decreased. Currently, the mainstream price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7600-7700 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of straight-run naphtha is around 7500-7600 yuan/ton. The terminal reorganization just needs replenishment, and a small amount of ethylene demand is released. The market transaction is limited, and the transaction is average. In the week ended March 29, Singapore’s fuel inventory fell 470000 barrels to a two-week low of 22.578 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.441 million barrels to a three week low of 15.688 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventories increased by 224000 barrels to 9.851 million barrels, the highest level since October 2021.

Upstream: The price of crude oil rose in early March, and China, as the largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil, has a profound impact on the oil market. The recent strong performance of macroeconomic data has further strengthened market bullish expectations. The collapse of a Silicon Valley bank in the United States in mid March, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data from the United States, has raised concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, the jitters of Credit Suisse have hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, as well as the negative impact of a more than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and a decrease in China’s crude oil imports, which has subsequently dragged down crude oil prices. In the second half of the year, Iraq stopped exporting crude oil from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, while the impact of risks on the banking industry in Europe and the United States weakened, and the easing of supply and demand concerns drove up oil prices.

Downstream: In March, the overall price of toluene showed a downward trend. On March 1st, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, the price was 7080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a decrease of 3.15%. In March, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated, with the price of 7450 yuan/ton on March 1 and 7570 yuan/ton on March 31, up 1.61% from the beginning of the month. In March, domestic PX prices remained stable, with a encouraging increase at the end of the month. In March, the overall price remained at 8500 yuan/ton, reaching 8800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In late March, the comprehensive operating rate of PX enterprises further increased, and PX market prices rose strongly.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Energy analysts from Business News believe that in March, the overall international crude oil market fluctuated and declined, with limited naphtha cost support and weak cost and demand. Terminal restructuring just required replenishment, a small amount of ethylene demand was released, market trading was cold, terminal demand was weak, and refineries actively reduced prices to ship. At the end of this month, some refining and reforming units will undergo centralized maintenance, and it is expected that naphtha refining will be mainly conducted in the near future.