1、 Price data

As of March 27, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7599.00 yuan/ton, down 7.82% from 8244.00 yuan/ton on March 20. The actual transaction price of local refined and hydrogenated naphtha was around 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

As of March 27, the average factory price of domestic straight run naphtha was 7514.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11% compared to March 20, when the price was 8089.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was around 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

The naphtha commodity index on March 27 was 93.79, down 3.42 points from yesterday, down 22.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and up 122.04% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of local refined naphtha continued to decline, with weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring just required replenishment, and a small amount of ethylene demand was released. Market trading was limited, market trading was sluggish, and market sentiment was pessimistic.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, the pressure of the banking crisis eased, and the oil market rebounded from a low level. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, which met market expectations and suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes would be suspended. The decline of the US dollar supported the rise of oil prices.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of toluene has shown a downward trend this week. On March 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7300.00 yuan/ton, and on March 24th, the benchmark price was 7050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42%. The expected decline in the long-term supply and inventory of toluene supports the mentality of businesses. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers is moderate, but the mentality of the industry is unstable. The volatility of the toluene market price still lacks autonomy, and it is still good in the short term. The price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. On March 17th, the price was 7500 yuan/ton, and on March 24th, the price was 7440 yuan/ton, down 0.8% from last week. In the PX market, this week, the overall operation of the px device was stable, with normal supply of goods on the site, good delivery, stable market operation, and temporarily stable price trend. As of the weekend, the domestic ex-factory price of paraxylene was 8500 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Energy analysts from Business News believe that the price of refined naphtha has continued to decline this week, with strong market pessimism and weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring just requires replenishment, a small amount of ethylene demand is released, market trading is cold, terminal demand is weak, and refineries are actively reducing prices to ship. It is expected that refined naphtha may continue to decline in the near future.