According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on October 31 was 94.36, unchanged from yesterday, 15.38% lower than the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and 13.84% higher than the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market declined slightly in October. At the beginning of the month, it was reported as 15471.43 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was reported as 15428.57 yuan/ton, with a downward adjustment of 0.28%. The water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, stopped production for about 10 days from the 10th due to environmental protection policy requirements in the early stage of this month; In the last ten days of the year, the construction was resumed, and the inventory was sufficient. Recently, many places are under strict control due to public health incidents, which has a certain impact on production and marketing. The cost of raw material acrylonitrile rose sharply, while acrylic acid rose first and then fell. Due to the general downstream demand and sufficient stock, the overall market of polyacrylamide did not change much, but fluctuated slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the market price of acrylonitrile has been rising every week, except for a slight drop in the middle of September. The price of acrylonitrile continued to rise in October. As of 31, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 10,890 yuan/ton, 10.33% higher than the price of 9870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the supply side pressure of acrylonitrile is not big in the short term, on the other hand, the demand continues to just need support; Acrylonitrile market is expected to remain high in the short term.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data from the business community, the acrylic acid market rose first and then fell in October, with the overall trend declining. As of October 31, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 8200.00 yuan/ton, 3.53% lower than the price on October 1, 14.29% lower than the same period last year in a three-month period, and 56.38% lower than the same period last year. At present, the cost support is general. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, market trading is orderly, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the price of domestic LNG fell by about 18.93% this month: the market price of LNG on October 31 was about 5540 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the first day was 6834 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, due to the transportation obstruction, the demand for downstream replenishment turned weak in the middle of the month, and the upstream shipment pressure was high, so the market fell back. According to the analysis, the current intra market trading and investment are flat, the traffic is blocked under the control of the epidemic situation, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is expected that domestic LNG prices will continue to fall mainly in the short term under the negative factors.

Future market forecast: the economy is declining, demand is weak, and this year’s market is not as good as the same period of previous years. Affected by low orders and sufficient inventory, the rise of raw material acrylonitrile did not drive the rise of polyacrylamide. Even if the manufacturer stopped work for more than ten days, the inventory was still rich. Judging from the current situation, the heating season is coming, and the market will remain stable and weak in the future.