1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price fluctuated widely this week. As of October 14, spot nickel quoted 192016.67 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day and 33.21% year on year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose by 4, fell by 7 and leveled by 1. Recently, the nickel price is still volatile.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

On October 13, LME nickel inventory was 52698 tons, 30 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 702 tons, a decrease of 1.3%.

On the macro level, the IMF again lowered the global GDP growth forecast for next year. It is expected that the global GDP growth rate will decline from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% this year, and further to 2.7% in 2023. On Thursday evening, the latest US inflation data exceeded market expectations. The US announced that September’s CPI was the focus of financial markets. In September, the CPI rose 8.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

In terms of supply and demand, nickel ore is affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, and the supply starts to fall back. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the cost support is strong. In October, the stainless steel production scheduling plan rebounded, the commencement of downstream demand side stainless steel gradually rebounded, and the demand for ferronickel also increased. The economy of ferronickel still exists, so the demand is guaranteed. Therefore, supply and demand have supported nickel price.

In general, although the long-term fundamentals of nickel price are poor, the current supply and demand are supported, the macro level is empty, and the global economy slows down. It is expected that nickel price will maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.