According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of thermal coal rose as a whole this month. On September 29, the energy index was 1161 points, up 8 points from yesterday, down 25.62% from the highest point of 1561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 127.20% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The overall price of steam coal in this month is relatively strong. In terms of origin, affected by the epidemic situation and safety reduction, coal mines are now mainly used to ensure long-term coal supply, and the market supply is still tight. The supply is reduced, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and the coal price is strongly supported. In terms of downstream ports, the price is mostly strong. The downstream non electricity demand is fair. In addition, due to the arrival of the National Day holiday, enterprises are actively stocking up, and the supply of coal falls short of demand. In addition, the overhaul of Daqin Line still has strong support for the rise of coal prices.

Macro data: The National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 27th that from January to August 2022, industrial enterprises above designated size will achieve operating revenue of 87.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year on year. The business income of mining owners was 4458.15 billion yuan, up 31.6% year on year. Among them, the main business income of coal mining and washing industry was 265.359 billion yuan, up 45.1% year on year; The oil and gas exploitation industry was 840.46 billion yuan, up 46.6% year on year; The ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 334.38 billion yuan, down 19.0% year on year; The nonferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 222.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.4%; The non-metallic mining and dressing industry was 272.08 billion yuan, up 4.7% year on year; Other mining industries were 1.31 billion yuan, up 54.1% year on year. Among them, the total profit of coal mining and washing industry was 709.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 112.0%; The total profit of the oil and gas exploitation industry was 290.1 billion yuan, up 111.0% year on year; The total profit of ferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 47.95 billion yuan, down 27.9% year on year; The total profit of nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 48.06 billion yuan, up 44.3% year on year; The total profit of non-metallic mining and beneficiation industry was 28.64 billion yuan, up 10.6% year on year.

Analysts from the business community believe that the overall price of steam coal in September was relatively strong. At present, coal mines are still mainly guaranteed supply and long-term cooperation with coal. There are few marketable resources in the market. Traders’ quotations are relatively firm. The overhaul of Daqin Line still has strong support for the rise of coal prices. However, considering the policy aspect, it is comprehensively expected that steam coal will be mainly used to collate the operating market in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.