In August, the aluminum price fluctuated sideways
| Thiourea |
According to the data of business agency, on August 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18453.33 yuan / ton, down 0.65% on a daily basis, up 0.75% from the average market price of 18316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (August 1), down 13.12% from the average market price of 21240 yuan / ton in the same period last year.
Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value falls by 23.87%. Based on the starting point of recent recovery (July 14, 2022), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 17450 yuan / ton, and the recent recovery increases by 5.75%.
Overview of recent Fundamentals
1. Supply side:
At home, the power shortage in Sichuan has eased. Except for the high load industries, the power consumption of large industries is gradually restored. Aluminum profile enterprises in the aluminum industry are promoting the resumption of production; The start-up period of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is long after power limit and shutdown. On August 29, Zhongfu industrial announced that the electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Guangyuan Linfeng and Guangyuan Zhongfu involved in the shutdown will be resumed in an orderly manner from August 28, 2022. At present, other enterprises are still in the state of shutdown; Most aluminum rod enterprises are temporarily shut down due to lack of aluminum water supply, and some production capacity using waste aluminum has been restored. It is expected that the supply of aluminum bars in Sichuan market will be tight in September.
Internationally, on August 30, Alcoa announced a reduction in production, and its lista electrolytic aluminum plant in Norway will reduce production by one third due to high energy costs. The aluminum plant has a production capacity of 94000 tons / year. The production reduction will be completed within 14 days, involving a production capacity of 31000 tons / year.
2. Demand side:
Domestic aluminum downstream consumption continued to be weak, and the regional epidemic and high-temperature power limit interfered with the downstream construction, and the aluminum rod and aluminum profile plants in Sichuan were basically shut down.
3. Inventory data:
The social inventory in the mainstream areas of domestic aluminum ingots is relatively stable, at a historical low level, and has accumulated a little recently. As of August 29, the mainstream social inventory of aluminum ingots was 686000 tons.
4. Influencing factors of policy:
The domestic LPR reduction combined with the relevant policies of real estate, the news is favorable for the construction aluminum, but the short-term impact on the downstream demand of aluminum is limited. The hawkish probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase in September has increased, the European economy has been hit hard by energy, and the manufacturing PMI index of Germany and France in August continues to be lower than the 50th percentile, which is not optimistic. Macro factors suppress international bulk prices.
Future market forecast
On the whole, overseas energy is still tight, Europe may face a more severe production reduction crisis, and some electrolytic aluminum production capacity is still expected to be reduced. On the domestic side, the power restriction is expected to be eased and the domestic supply is expected to be improved, but the uncertainty is still strong. In the short term, the aluminum price is mainly fluctuated in a wide range, with a range of 18000-19000 yuan / ton. In the future, attention will be paid to the downstream consumption and social inventory.
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