1、 Price data

As of August 21, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 8093.33 yuan / ton, up 0.21% from 8076.67 yuan / ton on August 15. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 8100 yuan / ton.

As of August 21, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7967.50 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from 7957.50 yuan / ton on August 15. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 8000 yuan / ton.

On August 21, the naphtha commodity index was 99.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 17.88% from the highest point 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle and up 136.48% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of local refined naphtha rose first and then fell. In the first half of the week, the price continued to rise due to the high price of gasoline, diesel and reforming products; In the second half of the week, the terminal ethylene cracking continued to suffer losses, and the market price of naphtha fell.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominates the market, and the economic data are generally weak, which once again raises the market’s concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market is waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension is expected to ease, which makes the international oil price under pressure. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) decided to increase production by 100000 barrels / day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC + actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels / day. This is also a reversal of the market’s view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, toluene rose slightly this week. On August 12, the price was 7460 yuan / ton, and on August 19, the price was 7480 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.27% over last week. This week, the price of mixed xylene was stable and small. On August 12, the price was 7960 yuan / ton, and on August 19, the price was 7960 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of paraxylene was stable this week. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business news agency, the international crude oil price fluctuated this week, the naphtha market had a strong wait-and-see attitude, the terminal ethylene cracking continued to suffer losses, the naphtha market price fell, the terminal demand was not significantly favorable, and the market was cautious to catch up. It is expected that the naphtha refined in the near future will be mainly processed.