1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices first fell and then rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 73266.67 yuan / ton, up 1.45% from 72220 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 9.16% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 7 and fell by 4 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is strong.

Supply and demand: the Bank of England announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, and said it may still need to raise interest rates further in the coming months. The European Central Bank said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may trigger a new inflation trend and will change the policy direction if necessary. The utilization rate of copper concentrate capacity increased, and the supply of copper mine remained stable. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February this year, the growth rate of national real estate development investment maintained a positive growth, but the growth rate was 3.7%. With the growth of new energy vehicles and real estate investment, the recovery rate of copper demand may accelerate.

To sum up: the recent high copper price fell, crude oil continued to rise, the market still focused on the Russian Ukrainian war, and the low foreign inventory maintained stability. At present, the margin of domestic currency has improved, the M2 data fell in February, the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike has become stronger, the macro multi space crisscross, the low domestic inventory, the low foreign output, and the short-term copper price may be strong.