1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refiners in December was 2320.75 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2801.25 yuan / ton at the end of the month. It decreased by 480.50 yuan / ton during the month, with a monthly increase of 20.70%.

On December 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 217.88, up 0.98 points from yesterday, down 16.90% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 225.73% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in December, refined petroleum coke continued to rise sharply. Recently, the local refineries have good shipments and positive transactions. The inventory of some refineries is low, and the price continues to rise.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply in December, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations.

Downstream: Calcined coke prices remained stable as a whole in December, with signs of pushing up at the end of the month; The silicon metal market fell sharply; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose. As of December 31, the price was 20370.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.

3、 Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business society predicts that the international crude oil is rising, the petroleum coke price is supported by the cost, and the recent local refining manufacturers have good shipments and rising prices. At present, the downstream pre Festival procurement and the inventory in the local refining market are low. It is expected that the petroleum coke price may continue to rise in the near future.