1、 Price data

As of December 19, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7363.25 yuan / ton, down 1.87% from 7503.25 yuan / ton on December 13. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7200-7500 yuan / ton.

As of December 19, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7092.50 yuan / ton, down 0.42% from 7122.50 yuan / ton on December 13. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7000-7200 yuan / ton.

On December 19, the naphtha commodity index was 90.88, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.06% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 115.15% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell slightly this week, the terminal demand was weak, the market mentality was cautious and the transaction was general.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated this week. OPEC believes that the recovery of crude oil demand is delayed to a certain extent due to the impact of the new variant virus. Second, U.S. oil reserves continued to decline, and U.S. commercial crude oil inventories and refined oil inventories decreased comprehensively. According to the data of the U.S. energy information administration, as of the week of December 10, the U.S. crude oil inventory was 428.86 million barrels, down 4.58 million barrels from the previous week; The total gasoline inventory in the United States was 218.585 million barrels, a decrease of 720000 barrels over the previous week. The slight decrease in crude oil inventory was good for crude oil prices and the long short game in the crude oil market.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene fell this week. The price was 5800.20 yuan / ton on December 10 and 5710.20 yuan / ton on December 17, down 1.55% from last week. The price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell this week. The price was 5840 yuan / ton on December 10 and 5840 yuan / ton on December 17, which was the same as that of last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 19th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 50th week of 2021 (12.13-12.17), including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (5.95%), petroleum coke (2.01%) and fuel oil (1.59%). A total of 8 commodities fell month on month, and the top 3 products were liquefied gas (- 3.30%), thermal coal (- 2.42%) and MTBE (- 2.05%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.05%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil fluctuates, the cost support of naphtha market is limited, and the downstream reformer is not obviously good. The transaction is general, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may focus on the weak.