Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price first fell and then rose this week. The quotation first fell from 2498.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2450.00 yuan / ton on December 6, a decrease of 1.92%, and then rose to 2456.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.24%, a year-on-year increase of 35.69%. On the whole, the urea market has twists and turns this week, and there is an upward trend at the weekend. On December 10, the urea commodity index was 114.23, up 0.09 points from yesterday, down 20.99% from the highest point of 144.57 points in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 105.45% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support weakened, downstream demand improved, and urea supply was insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 2700 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2410 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2400 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell sharply this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, and the quotation fell from 6383.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4700.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 26.37%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.53% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell slightly. The quotation fell from 1085.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1083.75 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.12%, a year-on-year increase of 58.62% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell slightly. The quotation fell from 4630.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4410.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 4.75%, up 37.81% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell sharply this week, and the quotation fell from 16126.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 12726.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 21.08%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea decreased significantly, which had a negative impact on the price of urea.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is advancing slowly, while industrial demand is mainly on the sidelines. The future market of urea price is uncertain, the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, and the production plan is postponed. The market price of melamine fell sharply, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation weakened. From the perspective of supply: the shutdown and maintenance time of gas head enterprises is delayed, and it is expected to stop one after another in mid December. At present, the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand improved, urea supply was insufficient, and urea increased slightly in the future.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In the middle of December, the domestic urea market may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that although the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have fallen sharply, the cost support is insufficient, and the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, urea enterprises entered the centralized maintenance period in mid December, the supply is tight, and the future urea market price may fluctuate slightly.