1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency: on November 29, the average price of domestic LNG was 7100 yuan / ton, down 14.22% from the beginning of the month and up 96.49% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In November, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas fell, and the price generally showed a decline rise flat trend. The decline in the month was 14.22%, and the focus shifted downward. The price decline this month was mainly caused by poor demand, flat market trading and increased inventory of liquid plant. The price fluctuated and fell. During this period, it rebounded due to cost support, but there was no obvious inflection point, and the market was still weak. In the first week, the demand was sluggish, and the market supply increased due to the start-up and sales of Huanggang, Hubei Province. The domestic liquid price fell by about 8% during the week; In the second week, due to the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the inventory of the liquid factory was controllable and the shipping atmosphere was improved. The price of the liquid factory increased by 7.44% during the week; From the third week to the end of the month, the domestic liquid price did not continue to rise, the downstream receiving capacity was insufficient, the purchasing mood became weak, the liquid factory shipment was not smooth, the price stopped rising and stabilized, and fluctuated in a narrow range. At the end of the month, the final transaction price of feed gas auction was 4.63-4.64 yuan / m3. The cost was reduced, which continued to be bad for the domestic liquid market, and the price continued to fall.

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from September 6 to November 28, 2021 that the rise and fall of domestic liquefied natural gas show each other in the cycle. The rise was as high as 17.75% in the week of October 11, and then stopped rising and turned into falling, which is quite volatile.

At present, 7050-7250 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 7000-7200 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 6900-7500 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 7110-7200 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 7000-7200 yuan / ton in Hebei, 7100-7300 yuan / ton in Henan and 7350-7500 yuan / ton in Shandong. The price of air inlet is about 6400-7900 yuan / ton.

region Specifications November 29th November 1st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 7050-7250 8000-8500 – 450/-1250

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 7000-7200 8270-8900 – 1270/-1700

Shanxi liquified natural gas 6900-7500 8300-8800 – 1400/-1300

Ningxia liquified natural gas 7110-7200 7900-8500 – 790/-1300

Henan liquified natural gas 7100-7300 8500-8900 – 1400/-1600

Hebei liquified natural gas 7000-7200 8100-8600 – 1100/-1400

Downstream products were mixed:

Methanol, the domestic methanol market fell unilaterally in November, with a significant decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3156 yuan / ton at the beginning of November and 2692 yuan / ton at the end of November. The price decreased by 14.72% and increased by 27.58% year-on-year. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market is expected to rise in the short term.

Liquid ammonia, on the 29th, the market situation of liquid ammonia in Shandong remained stable, and the market price basically maintained the level of last week. The quotations of most manufacturers were not adjusted. The dealers mainly offered low and flat prices, and the downstream procurement took the goods normally and just needed to purchase. At present, with the increase of manufacturers’ shipments, there are more sources of goods in the market and the inventory increased significantly compared with the previous period. At present, the mainstream market price in this region is 4100-4300 yuan / ton. It is expected that the ammonia price may continue to be weak and stable in the near future.

Urea, upstream coal prices are stable, LNG prices have increased slightly recently, and cost support has been strengthened. In terms of demand, agricultural demand increased slightly, while industrial demand was mainly on the sidelines. The promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer was slow, and large urea purchase orders began to appear in the downstream compound fertilizer plants. The inventory of melamine enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, the inventory of urea manufacturers is high, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. At the end of the month, the gas head unit will be shut down one after another, and the urea output will decline. On the whole, the urea cost support is general, the downstream demand is mainly just demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the urea supply is reduced. In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea price may rise slightly in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analysts of business agency, the overall domestic LNG market in November was weak, the trading was flat, there was pressure on the shipment of liquid plants, and the price went down. Although the cost support was ok, the market supply was increasingly abundant, and the cargo holders reduced prices and made good shipments. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to maintain a weak trend of shock in the short term