Commodity index: on July 30, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.99% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 6.00% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the data of business society, in late July, Gongyi, Henan, the main production area, experienced a severe rainstorm. The local water treatment enterprises stopped production for about a week and finally restarted production after the power was restored. However, it will take some time for the road to recover and the logistics transportation is blocked. The current inventory situation is different. Some raw materials are slightly tight and the price has an upward trend. Some trading enterprises have high inventory and small price reduction for shipment. From the data, the mainstream price on the 16th, that is, the monthly highest price, was 14460 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th, that is, the lowest price of 14380 yuan / ton this month, down 0.55% in the first half of the month, with a small price fluctuation.

The manager of Henan Kaijie water treatment Co., Ltd. understands that the price of some products in the upstream of Henan Kaijie water treatment Co., Ltd. has been stable since the rainstorm. In terms of logistics, it is difficult to find cars now. Moreover, some sections are inconvenient to pass. ” Referring to the future, manager Wang said that due to the recent continuous increase in the price of acrylic acid, the subsequent price of polyacrylamide may rise, and the prices of brown corundum and ferrous sulfate also show some signs of rising.

Acrylic acid is one of the raw materials used in the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide. According to the data monitoring of business society, the market price of acrylic acid has continued to rise slightly since the 20th: the mainstream quotation on the 20th was 12150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 28th was 13750 yuan / ton, an increase of about 13%. As shown in the figure:

Acrylonitrile, as the main raw material of polyacrylamide, increased by 50 yuan / ton in the middle of the year, and the mainstream market quotation was about 14750 yuan / ton until the end of the month. Recently, despite the frequent occurrence of extreme weather, the domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has not been significantly affected. The delayed shipping schedule will arrive in Hong Kong at the end of this month or early next month. With the production plan of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II next month, the overall supply of acrylonitrile is increasing. Limited by the downstream demand with limited growth, the future acrylonitrile market is generally weak.

Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process.

region Specifications July 27th July 1st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4680-4900 3450-3800 + 1230/+1100

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4750-5050 3670-3800 + 1080/+1250

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4850-4950 3600-3800 + 1250/+1150

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4780-4880 3680-3850 + 1100/+1030

Henan liquified natural gas 5000-5210 3670-3850 + 1330/+1360

Hebei liquified natural gas 4950-5200 3750-3950 + 1200/+1250

Sichuan liquified natural gas 4600-5000 3500-3900 + 1100/+1100

The sharp rise of liquid price in July was mainly due to the increase of cost, the decrease of market supply, the increase of demand in high temperature weather, and the continuous rise of air intake. Multiple positive factors superimposed to support the sharp rise of domestic LNG price. The liquid price in various places increased by more than 1000 yuan within the month, and the center of gravity shifted significantly upward. In the second half of the month, the domestic LNG market continued to rise in the off-season. On the 16th, the domestic mainstream quotation was 4506.67 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the mainstream quotation was 5146.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 21.19%, which was very eye-catching in the off-season of traditional consumption. Recently, there have been heavy rainstorms in many places, affecting the logistics in some areas, the market supply continues to decrease, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, and the psychology of pushing up the price is still. According to the current situation, the domestic LNG market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Downstream demand: at the beginning of the third quarter, the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The production in the main production areas was affected to a certain extent due to the rainstorm, and the inventory of some enterprises was consumed; Although the production is suspended for about a week, due to road damage, short-term repair is difficult, logistics and transportation are limited, raw material procurement and finished product delivery are affected, and the demand and consumption rate of polyacrylamide will slow down.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business society, since the third quarter, the production has been interrupted for a short time due to the rainstorm, the transportation has been blocked, the prices of some raw materials have risen, and the production cost may rise. For enterprises with small inventory, production pressure increases; For enterprises with high inventory, there is still room for price reduction and shipment. The downstream demand has not improved much this month. The small change in price comes from the high and low inventory of products and raw materials, and the market is stable and weak. In the future, considering the strong impact of the above factors and the future trend of LNG, the polyacrylamide market may fluctuate to some extent, the ex factory prices of some manufacturers may rise slightly, and the trading enterprises with high inventory will have a larger price range.