Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic ABS market fell mainly in June, and most brands of spot products fell. As of July 1, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 17700 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a rise of 33.58% compared with the same period last year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw material styrene, the domestic styrene price continued to decline in May, with weak supply and demand in the first and second half of the market and low trading momentum. It stopped falling and rebounded in the last ten days. Domestic factories and ports in Jiangsu Province were at a low level throughout the month, and good support from the supply side was acceptable. However, it is expected that the supply of styrene abroad, especially in the near ocean, will pick up, and the import volume is expected to gradually increase. At the end of the month, the average operating load of domestic styrene plants was about 80%, slightly lower than before. As for pure benzene, due to the unexpected production reduction of large-scale plants in East China and the delayed arrival of US dollar cargoes at the port, the inventory of pure benzene was low. The price of pure benzene rose mainly in June, and the price hit a new high in the year, which was good for the cost side of styrene. However, with the recent restart of styrene short-term shutdown unit and the commissioning of Gulei petrochemical, the supply has picked up, and the demand will continue to be weak in the off-season. It is expected that the price fluctuation of styrene will be weak in the later period.

Upstream butadiene: the domestic butadiene market continued the upward trend in June. The price of butadiene in China rose to a new high in the year, driven by the continued high rise of the external market. During the month, the delayed start-up of phase II plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd., the unexpected situation of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Quanzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd., as well as the supply side news such as domestic exports of goods all gave obvious support to the market. Although the downstream synthetic rubber market rose slightly, the terminal performance was not good. The butadiene market went up without the continuous support of downstream demand. In the middle and late ten days, with the butadiene industry reaching a high level, the transaction of some high price sources was gradually weak. In addition, affected by the policy, the downstream construction was not good at the end of the month, and the transportation in some areas was limited, the market trading was gradually weakening, and the market performance stopped rising and consolidation. Business community butadiene analysts expect that short-term domestic butadiene market high consolidation.

In June, the price of ABS cost side fluctuated, and the overall support for ABS cost side was acceptable. The domestic production units have the news of repair and resumption of work, and the supply is weak on the whole, but the benefit to the spot is not obvious. The continued weakness of ABS market in June and the negative trend of spot price are typical off-season market. Under the traditional off-season, the pattern of weak supply and demand of ABS is difficult to open, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is lower. Downstream enterprises are slow to follow up and tend to buy up but not down. The market as a whole is short and the offer is weak.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: ABS spot market in June weak operation, raw materials, mixed trend, the cost of ABS support. The low market momentum in off-season is the main bad news in the market. Enterprises and businesses tend to give up profits and take orders. The actual trading is mainly small orders. It is expected that the ABS spot market will continue to be weak in the near future.