1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on June 28 was 3666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.1% from the beginning of this month and 48.65% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In June, the domestic LNG market fluctuated, which was generally divided into four stages: down up down up. There were two obvious increases in the middle and the end of the month, but the amplitude was not large, and the overall trend was W-shaped. In June, the off-season demand had a significant impact. The domestic LNG market price continued to decline. On the 15th, the first working day after the Dragon Boat Festival, the logistics recovered after the festival, the downstream replenishment and the price of raw gas rose, and the liquid market ushered in a wave of rise. However, the rally did not last long, and the security inspection strictly affected the trading in some areas. On the 21st, it quickly fell back to the previous rise. Towards the end of the month, the price of imported liquid rose, boosting the domestic liquid market, adding to the maintenance of liquid plants. The supply side was favorable, and the liquid price rose by more than 3% on the 28th. The manufacturers had a positive attitude of supporting the price. Under the psychology of buying up but not buying down, the market trading atmosphere improved, but the wait-and-see attitude remained unchanged.

On June 28, the domestic liquefied natural gas market rose in a large area, with 3450-3700 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 3580-3720 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 3600-3770 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 3650-3730 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 3800-3850 yuan / ton in Henan and 3670-3700 yuan / ton in Hebei.

region Specifications June 28th June 1st Up and down

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 3450-3700 3450-3650 + 0/+50

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 3580-3720 3560-3720 + 20/0

Shanxi liquified natural gas 3600-3770 3650-3770 – 50/0

Ningxia liquified natural gas 3650-3730 3600-3700 + 50/+30

Henan Province liquified natural gas 3800-3850 3750-3900 + 50/-50

Hebei liquified natural gas 3670-3700 3540-3800 + 130/-100

For urea, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province rose on June 28, 60 yuan / ton higher than that on June 25, or 2.22%. The price of upstream coal has risen sharply recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. From the aspect of demand, the demand of agriculture in different areas has been cooling down, and the demand of agriculture has been decreasing; However, the price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches has risen, and the construction of rubber sheet factories and melamine enterprises is acceptable, and most of them are used as soon as they are mined. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea plants is still lower than that of the same period last year, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also kept at a low position. Affected by the shortage of coal, some areas begin to reduce production. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is stable, and urea supply is tight. Forecast: it is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 2800 yuan / ton.

Dichloromethane: on the 28th, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 3770 yuan / ton, down 4.39% from the previous day. Over the weekend, the factory prices of some dichloromethane manufacturers in Shandong Province were lowered. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of June 28, the dichloromethane bulk water of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. had been delivered in cash at 3890 yuan / ton; Shandong Jinling dichloromethane bulk water ex works at 3670 yuan / ton. Recently, the overall start-up of domestic methane chloride plant has been improved, and the supply has increased slightly, which has an impact on the formation of partial empty dichloromethane. In addition, the price of liquid chlorine dropped sharply. As of the 28th, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was 850 yuan / ton, and the cost was mainly empty. Future forecast: on the one hand, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has dropped sharply; on the other hand, the domestic start-up of methane chloride has generally increased, and the impact of cost and supply side is mainly short. It is expected that dichloromethane will be weak in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: near the end of the month, the domestic liquid market fluctuated and rose. Supported by the supply side and cost side, the price rose somewhat. With the favorable bidding in July, the market will be boosted. It is expected that the domestic liquefied natural gas market will still have a small rise in the short term, but the off-season factors are still there, so the persistence of the rise is not strong.