The supply and demand of raw materials are bad, and the BDO market in May is “unsustainable”. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 27520 yuan / ton on May 1, and 19825 yuan / ton on May 31, with a price drop of 27.97% and a year-on-year rise of 122.75%. The delivery price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is 575 yuan / ton lower than that in April; Methanol in Northwest China decreased by 212.5 yuan / ton compared with April, resulting in lower cost of BDO raw materials. In addition, although the unit was shut down for maintenance or catalyst replacement within the month, there was no obvious benefit at the supply side due to the early inventory to be digested; Terminal demand is weak, downstream market is cautious, and BDO spot market falls again and again.

According to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of commodity price rise and fall in May 2021, there were 43 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 22 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 23.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (40.98%), polysilicon (20.49%) and formic acid (12.33%). A total of 43 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 17 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three products were acetone (- 30.00%), 1,4-butanediol (- 27.97%) and melamine (- 25.93%). The average rise and fall this month was – 0.57%.

In May, domestic BDO units such as Meike phase I, Kaixiang in Henan and Dongyuan in Inner Mongolia were shut down for maintenance, and catalysts were replaced by Shaanxi Ronghe and Shaanxi Shanhua, resulting in a decrease in overall output. However, due to the relatively high level of social inventory to be digested in the early stage, the overall benefit of the supply side is not obvious. Towards the end of the month, on the 28th, Tunhe’s 200 ton line was listed, with transactions of 19600 yuan / ton, which slightly boosted the market atmosphere and slowed down the price decline.

Since March 2021, the domestic BDO spot market has “fallen to the altar”, and the price has “never recovered”. The BDO market in the first half of 2021 presents a completely different trend from that in previous years, with ups and downs, complicated and confusing.

In terms of devices, Shaanxi black cat stopped for maintenance on May 6 and plans to restart in early June; The 100000 ton unit of Xinjiang Meike phase I was shut down for maintenance from May 6 to May 18, and is now in stable operation; Dongyuan, Inner Mongolia, was shut down for maintenance from May 8 to 20, and now it is running stably; Xinjiang Tianye 3 + 60000 ton plant was shut down for maintenance from May 10 to 20, and is now being restarted; Henan Kaixiang 110000t / a plant was shut down for maintenance for one month on May 11; The 100000 t / a unit of Shaanxi Ronghe was shut down on May 20 to replace the catalyst, and the current load is 60%; The 100000 ton unit of Shannxi Shanhua large line was shut down on May 20 to replace the catalyst and is now in normal operation; The 100000 t / a Yanchang oil plant is unstable in operation within a month, and the current load is about 30-40%.

In the upstream, the delivery price of calcium carbide in Northwest China decreased by 575 yuan / ton compared with April; Methanol in Northwest China decreased by 212.5 yuan / ton compared with April, resulting in lower cost of BDO raw materials.

On the downstream side, Henan energy and Yanchang oil load of the main downstream PTMEG plant are increased and expanded, and PBT and PBAT maintenance plants are also planned to restart. Some downstream industries, such as TPU and Pu slurry, continued their off-season operation and maintained a low level. Due to less demand, their impact on the market was limited. As a result, demand will increase in June.

In June, both the supply side and the demand side are expected to increase, but the terminal and the downstream still have limited ability to accept high prices, and the market pressure continues. Traders have a bad trading attitude and are worried about the further decline of the market. BDO analysts of business news agency expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline in a narrow range in June.