1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose sharply this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 18666.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 25000 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 32.51% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

In late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, lack of water and power restriction in Yunnan, the power of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Recently, power rationing has not been alleviated, but has become more and more serious. All yellow phosphorus plants in Yunnan are temporarily shut down before June, but the specific start-up time is not yet determined. At present, the supply of yellow phosphorus market is further shrinking, which may continue to push up the price of yellow phosphorus. Up to now, Yunnan yellow phosphorus plant has been temporarily shut down before June, and the specific start-up time has not been determined. The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 25000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, in late May, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market continued to maintain a high consolidation operation, the overall market trading atmosphere was good, the downstream orders were relatively stable, and the shipment of the industry was normal. Guizhou’s phosphorus ore market is in a high level of consolidation and operation. The operating rate of enterprises in Guizhou is low, the inventory of phosphorus ore is low, and the spot supply is tight. Most of Guizhou’s mining enterprises keep high and firm quotation, and the market transaction price is generally high. According to the data monitoring of business society, as of May 27, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 510 yuan / ton, compared with the price on May 1, The average price increased by 30 yuan / ton, or 6.25%, up 30.21% compared with the same period last year. Business community phosphorus ore analysts believe that: at present, the overall market trading atmosphere is good, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be strong in the short term.

In terms of coke, according to the price monitoring of the business association, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2720 yuan / ton on May 27. Since the eighth round of increase and fall of coking enterprises on May 19, the coke market has maintained a high consolidation trend for a week. During this period, although the ninth round of increase and the first round of increase and fall started at the same time, they did not fall, and the coke steel game continued. Today, the coke market of Shandong Port and port is weak. At present, the mainstream ex warehouse price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke in port area is about 2600 yuan / ton, and the price of first grade coke is 2700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day, and the inventory of two ports is declining. The overall port mentality is weak, the shipping intention of the traders is strong, some transactions are at low prices, the overall trading atmosphere is weak, and the market atmosphere is weak, the traders’ willingness to gather at the port is low. Business analysts believe that at present, traders have a strong fear of heights, and the driving force of fundamentals is limited. With the support of downstream demand, coke prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

In terms of demand, the phosphoric acid Market in May was relatively stable in the first half of the month, and fluctuated in a narrow range in the second half of the month. The price is expected to rise in the short term. Glyphosate prices continued to rise, the acceptance of high price yellow phosphorus was acceptable, which played a certain role in boosting the price of yellow phosphorus.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise this week. The power supply in Yunnan was limited, and all yellow phosphorus plants were shut down. The supply of yellow phosphorus market further contracted, and the shortage of spot goods intensified. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will continue to rise in the short term.