Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market has been pushing up. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price increase mode of liquid ammonia has been started since last week. Since the beginning of last week, the domestic liquid ammonia has risen by more than 5%. At present, the market price has exceeded 4000, reaching the highest level of more than three years. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the double effects of cost push and supply-demand tension.

After May 1, with the increase of inflation expectation, with the domestic commodities ushering in a new round of rising cycle, especially the upstream coal and methanol products of liquid ammonia have increased sharply. At first, the price of liquid ammonia did not follow up significantly. Even in the first week after the festival, liquid ammonia was still subject to high opening rate of domestic units, and the increase of discharge output led to a high inventory, and a short wave of downward trend occurred. However, in the week of May 11, urea price continued to rise sharply, and the liquid ammonia price also flew up one week later.

At the cost end, the domestic coal market after the saving was booming. As of May 18, the price of power coal rose 14.07%, and the price of power coal had risen by more than 70% since the beginning of March, which was more than 100% higher than that of the same period last year; Coking coal also increased by 11.8%. Although the price of coal has been gradually falling down due to the influence of “stable price of supply and supply”, it is still relatively high at present, and the cost pressure is transmitted to the downstream（ See the above figure)

Methanol also felt the pressure from upstream, the supply and demand of raw coal was tight, which promoted the cost of coal to methanol. According to the monitoring of business society, as of May 18, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong Province was 2730 yuan / ton, with the price rising 14.23% on a month-on-year basis, and a year-on-year increase of 64.71%. Methanol has seen a peak fall in the last week, but the price is still at a relatively high level in history（ See the above figure)

From the supply side, the failure of ammonia enterprises and routine maintenance are also beneficial to the price of liquid ammonia. Recently, the urea market has soared, and the low ammonia enterprises are mainly turning to urea, which aggravates the shortage of liquid ammonia. Jiangsu Hengsheng produces all urea and the combined unit is overhauled. The market supply tension is difficult to ease.

Downstream, the urea period is linked with spot, and the price of the last three weeks has been rising continuously. According to the monitoring of the business society, urea increased by more than 8% from May 10 to 26. The main reason is that the agricultural demand of all regions is followed up; The improvement of the starting rate of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plant drives the urea market to return to the warm. The supply side of Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other parts of the enterprise equipment maintenance, supply tight. In addition, on May 18, RCF issued a new round of urea import bidding, and opened on May 25, which saw bullish expectations rising.

In terms of compound fertilizer, the demand for agriculture has recovered, the price of agricultural products increased, the planting area increased, and the fertilizer market was favorable. However, the main factor is the tight supply side. According to the monitoring of business society, ammonium phosphate has gained a strong trend in recent week, and it rose continuously from 20 to 26 days, up 3.29%.

In the future, the problem of tight domestic supply is difficult to alleviate rapidly in the near future. In addition, the high upstream raw material price may maintain high liquid ammonia price, and it is not ruled out that the possibility of continuing to rush.