1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of steam coal is temporarily stable this week. From August 17 to August 21, the average port price of steam coal remained at 559.5 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.24% compared with the same period last year. On August 23, the commodity index of steam coal was 67.41, unchanged with yesterday, down 34.56% from the highest point of 103.01 in the cycle (November 15, 2011), and 50.81% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of production areas, some coal mines in Northern Shaanxi have stopped production for maintenance, and the actual production capacity has declined and the supply is tight, but the overall shipment is relatively smooth, and the coal price generally rises by 5-10 yuan; the coal management tickets in Inner Mongolia are strictly controlled, and the long-term cooperative shipping is basically maintained, and the coal price is weak and stable; the production and sales in northern Shanxi are relatively normal, and the coal price is firm.

In terms of downstream power plants, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal in the port is about 556-561 yuan / ton. The high temperature weather in China continues, the daily coal consumption of power plants is increasing day by day, and the inventory has no obvious change, and most of them are long-term cooperative replenishment warehouses. As of the 21st, Zhejiang power had 4.43 million tons of inventory, 150000 tons of daily consumption, and 29.53 days of usable days.

Data released by the National Bureau of statistics on August 14 showed that the price of coal in the first ten days of August was mainly stable. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: anthracite (washing medium block, volatile content ≤ 8%) price is 835 yuan / ton, which is 5 yuan / ton lower than the previous period, or 0.6% lower. The price of ordinary blended coal (mixed coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 443.3 yuan / ton, up 2.7 yuan / ton or 0.6% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi mixed coal (better quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 495 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high quality blended coal, calorific value 5500 kcal) was 543.3 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (produced by Datong, with calorific value of 5800 kcal) was 573.3 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) was 1270.0 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period.

Business agency analysts believe that: the supply of production areas is relatively tight, and the daily consumption of downstream power plants is increasing due to weather reasons. However, due to the coal price inventory of Changxie coal, the power plant needs to purchase steam coal on demand. Datong Qinhuangdao line is back to traffic, the shipment volume is less than that of the previous days, the inventory of Beigang is still in the middle and high level, the seller’s willingness to support the price is still there, the terminal demand is general, and the transaction situation is relatively general. In a comprehensive view, the short-term steam coal price may maintain a small consolidation trend, and the specific demand of downstream market.