1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3050 yuan / ton, down 11.59% month on week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: the overseas epidemic continues to spread, worried about the shrinking demand for crude oil caused by the economic recession, adding that the international oil price generally maintained a sharp decline trend before Thursday. Affected by this, the domestic toluene price followed the sharp decline. After trump intervened in the oil price, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively stated that the crude oil production reduction agreement is turning around, the international oil price jumped sharply, and the domestic toluene price finally reached the bottom Up to now, the mainstream price in East China is around 3200 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price generally maintained a sharp decline trend before Thursday. After trump intervened in the oil price, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively stated that the crude oil production reduction agreement is turning around, and the international oil price jumped sharply. By Friday day, Brent fell 9.36%, Brent futures rose 16.32%, WTI futures rose 11.53%, and Dubai futures fell 14.34%.

On the downstream side, TDI, at present, the quotation of Shanghai goods delivery with tickets is about 10000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the TDI market will stabilize next week, paying close attention to the plant’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 456 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 474 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will rebound in shock next week.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business chemical branch thinks: in the short term, trump is involved in the oil price. Saudi Arabia and Russia have made statements one after another. The crude oil production reduction agreement is now turning around, and the technical impact is expected to usher in a shock rebound. In the medium term, it depends on the demand side, when the inflection point of the epidemic occurs and the progress of economic recovery. Next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, worries about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption of work. On the whole, it is expected that the price of toluene in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will gradually fluctuate and stabilize next week. In addition, domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. It is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will fluctuate and stabilize next week. However, it is not optimistic to expect the rebound range under the condition that the inventory of toluene industry is too high and the industrial chain recovery is not smooth.