1、 Price trend

In the past week, the domestic propane market continued to rise. On February 10, the average price of the propane market was 3700 yuan / ton, and on February 17, the average price was 3857.5 yuan / ton, up 4.26% in seven days. The price was 4.64% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane market has been rising continuously in the past week, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively mild. As of February 17, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group has no propane in stock, so it will not offer any price temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3700 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3680 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The ex factory price of propane of Industrial Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton.

Propane has shown an upward trend in the past week, and the market trading atmosphere is moderate. The rise of international crude oil has brought a certain boost to the market, and the rebound of civil gas has brought good results. The demand for inventory and replenishment in the lower reaches, together with the gradual recovery of transportation in various regions, has improved the overall market transaction atmosphere. The manufacturer’s shipment is relatively smooth, and the inventory pressure is gradually relieved. At present, it is controllable and continuously upward.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast

With the gradual recovery of transportation and the replenishment of the downstream market, the manufacturer’s inventory has been eased. At present, the inventory is controllable, coupled with the reduction of domestic supply, and the mentality is relatively strong. It is expected that the market trend will be good in the short term, with the possibility of continuing upward.