I. price trend

PS market overall trend is stable, business offers go with the market, calm atmosphere. Small and medium-sized downstream buyers are not willing to receive goods, and the firm offer is limited. Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 9200-10600 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 10200-11400 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

PS Market: the ex factory price of Zhanjiang Zhongmei PS, 525, is 9400 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS, 525, is 9000 yuan / ton. The trading atmosphere in the market was cold.

III. future forecast

The overall atmosphere of PS market is stable. The situation of market transaction and shipment continued to be flat. There were not many downstream factories to purchase, and the trading atmosphere was relatively weak. Both the supplier and the demander held a cautious wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that PS market will be stable, with minor adjustment.

I. price trend

In October 2019, the domestic antimony ingot Market fluctuated higher, with the average price of 39750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 42000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 5.66%.

On October 31, the antimony commodity index was 58.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.86% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 24.46% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

II. Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: this month, the price of antimony trioxide rose with the trend of antimony ingot. As of 31, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 37000 yuan / ton, and 99.8% at 39250 yuan / ton.

Domestic market: in the first ten days of this month, the spot market price is mainly higher, which is mainly determined by the strong price confidence of major domestic manufacturers. In the middle of this month, the price of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingot is increased by 2000 yuan / ton, while that of other models is increased by 2500 yuan / ton. At the end of the third quarter, we will enter the traditional peak season of the fourth quarter. The downstream stock is more active. The overall transaction of the market is good. Some traders are reluctant to sell, and the overall market atmosphere is good. In the late ten days, the market price stopped rising and entered consolidation after a rapid rise. Both sides of the market began to test each other and wait and see. As of the end of the month, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingot was 41000 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingot was 41500 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingot was 42500 yuan / ton, and 2 × high bismuth antimony ingot was 39000 yuan / ton.

III. future prospects

Next week’s economic data is still concentrated. In addition to the employment data, there are PMI data from various countries. It’s hard to be optimistic about the expected value, and there’s no room for a sharp rise in the low dollar index recovery. However, the worry about economic fatigue still makes the bullies of various metals afraid. If the market shows a correction, it may increase the willingness of downstream consumers to buy into the market. In November, the market will be closed The atmosphere will be much better than this week. Antimony ingot Market has experienced the rapid price rise in the first ten days of October, and now it has entered the consolidation trend. However, due to the fact that the current supplier action is still unified, although the market has some noise impact, the general trend has not changed, and it is expected that the high consolidation in the future will be the main trend.

Commodity index: on October 30, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 7.79% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.20% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on October 1, the main quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 16333.33 yuan / ton, and on October 30, the main quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 16166.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.02%; among them, on October 21, some local manufacturers in Henan Province lowered their quotation by 400 yuan, with a quotation range of domestic polyacrylamide cation (PAM, molecular weight of 12 million) /The quotation of anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) was reduced by about 200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: it is understood that upstream: in October, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market was significantly reduced, with the quotation of 12500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 11500 yuan / ton on the 11th, 11000 yuan / ton on the 23rd, 10900 yuan / ton on the 28th, with a range of 12.8%; downstream: the demand was relatively stable. Manufacturer: the factory in Henan main production area started normal this month, with stable supply of goods. Subject to the continuous reduction of upstream costs, the manufacturer’s procurement costs have been reduced.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth. The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. In October, the manufacturer’s production was normal and the market mainstream quotation was stable.

Future forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that Henan manufacturers in the main production area have normal production, stable supply of goods and stable demand in the downstream this month, but the price of acrylonitrile, as the upstream raw material, has been greatly reduced by more than 12%. The quotations of some manufacturers and traders have been reduced. The future market still pays attention to the impact of the upstream cost changes on the price of polyacrylamide.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market price of DAP in China fell again. On October 17, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2416 yuan / ton, and on October 24, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2366 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.07%. On October 24, DAP commodity index was 70.59, down 0.5 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 31.45% from 102.98, the highest on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic market of DAP is light, and the market of DAP is weak. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2300-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 23050-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at present, the phosphorus ore market as a whole maintains a stable situation. Large mining enterprises continue to digest inventory, keep more orders from old customers in the field, and maintain a small amount of procurement in the downstream. The supply and demand of domestic sulfur market has not improved, the port inventory is high, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, the market is dominated by negative sentiment, and the operators wait and see the news guidance. The domestic liquid ammonia market is mainly in a small decline, and the market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions after the festival. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore the low. The downstream demand is not good, more goods are taken on demand, and there is little trading.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of commodity prices on October 24, 2019, among which propane (1.05%), propylene (0.53%) and styrene (0.43%) are the top three commodities. There are 16 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were mixed xylene (- 2.37%), organosilicon DMC (- 1.91%) and ethylene (- 1.35%). The average price of this day was – 0.15%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of DAP of business association think that the market of DAP cannot be improved without good support. The cost support is weak, and the progress of winter storage is slow. The poor export of DAP can only be reduced to domestic sales, and the market demand is poor. It is expected that the market of diammonium phosphate will continue to be sluggish in the later stage.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China last week was 1766 yuan / ton, while that in East China on October 28 was 1750 yuan / ton, down 0.94%.

II. Market analysis

Product: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to fall. On October 28, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1600 yuan / ton, which was stable; Anhui Jinhe offered 1650 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton lower than last week’s offer. The market performance of nitric acid is still poor, the weak quotation of manufacturers tends to stabilize, and the prices of some manufacturers are slightly reduced.

Industrial chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material of the upstream of nitric acid, is mainly stable in the domestic liquid ammonia market according to the monitoring of the business association. The average market price of liquid ammonia was 3150 yuan / ton in the week of the 21st, and the manufacturer reported stability.

III. future forecast

The terminal demand of nitric acid market is still weak. According to the nitric acid analysts of the business association, the nitric acid market will still fluctuate in a narrow range.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of October 25, the quotation range of domestic top-grade DMF enterprises is 5500-5700 yuan / ton, the quotation of manufacturers on October 21 is 5600 yuan / ton, the quotation of manufacturers on October 25 is 5500 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 1.79%, and the DMF market is slightly down.

II. Market analysis

Products: domestic DMF market weak consolidation. It is reported that new products will be produced today after the restart of the plant in Shandong Province, and more attention will be paid to the new quotation. Other plants are stable and the inventory consumption is slow. The downstream market demand is reduced, some factories still keep a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for the market to further clarify, the domestic DMF market is weak, and pay attention to the new market guidance. As of October 21, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng dmf5700 yuan / ton, Henan Junhua dmf5500 yuan / ton, Zhejiang Jiangshan chemical dmf5400 yuan / ton, Anyang Jiutian dmf5400 yuan / ton, Yanchang Xinghua dmf5350 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinmei daily and monthly dmf5300 yuan / ton.

III. Market Analysis

Products: Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions maintain rigid procurement, South China region has light trading and investment, the enthusiasm of the industry to enter the market is not good, waiting for the price to fall to the psychological level, the overall demand side shrinks, and the market situation remains stagnant.

IV. future forecast

According to DMF analysts of business agency, in the short term, DMF price consolidation and operation are the main factors, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the polysilicon market did not continue to rise two weeks after the festival. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the price is back to stability. The bottom rebound is temporarily over. Although the price has not broken through again, the market is still relatively rigid. As of October 18, the average price quoted by domestic enterprises is 63000-67000 yuan / ton, and the current price is about 25% lower than that of last year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 7300-760 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is further narrowed.

II. Market analysis

In the middle of October, the domestic polysilicon market has been in stable operation. After experiencing the slow bull market of “Jinjiu”, the market has entered a stable period at present, with fair supply and demand. On the one hand, the market has sufficient supply and low maintenance rate of large factories, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large. At present, 15 domestic production enterprises are in normal production, and the signing rate of municipal manufacturers is also high. In October The orders of the manufacturers have been exhausted. Most of the manufacturers have signed until November. Recently, there is news in the market that Daquan new energy and Jingke have signed a two-year polysilicon supply agreement. According to the terms of the supply agreement, Daquan new energy will supply 12000 to 14400 tons of polysilicon and 15600 to 21600 tons of polysilicon to Jingke energy in 2020 and 2021, with monthly pricing. Overall, the overall market supply pressure is not big. On the other hand, the cornerstone of stable market supply also relies on the moderate growth of downstream demand. After entering October, downstream demand continues to warm up, and the operating rate of battery manufacturers generally increases compared with that in September. In addition, the capacity expansion and centralized release of downstream silicon rod and silicon wafer increase the demand for polysilicon. At the same time, the new capacity release of domestic polysilicon material ensures the same demand and supply. Step growth. In addition, the price of imported goods has been raised, but influenced by the recent strengthening of RMB exchange rate, the price of RMB converted from import volume denominated in US dollar has remained stable.

In the future, business analysts believe that at present, the polysilicon market is stable, driven by the traditional peak season factor of “silver ten”, and also benefited from the situation of booming market supply and demand. At present, the supply side inventory is not much, and the market can maintain normal purchasing behavior. In the late October, if there is a sudden overhaul of the enterprise, the price is expected to rise, but at the same time We should continue to pay close attention to the downstream operating rate. It is expected that there will be little change in the near future, and the polysilicon market will still be strong for some time.

I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of potash fluctuated and consolidated this week. The average factory price of light potash in China was 6425.00 yuan / ton, including tax. The current price dropped 7.05% year on year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potassium carbonate was in shock and consolidation. Affected by the National Day holiday, the market of potassium carbonate was not running well, and the trading atmosphere was cold. At the same time, the demand side was weak, resulting in the consolidation of the price of potassium nitrate. The actual turnover of the market is relatively general, while the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is at a low level, the overall inventory is at a low level, the purchasing market momentum is general, and the domestic potassium carbonate market is volatile and consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency: in October, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6300-6600 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that this week’s potash market is volatile and consolidation. The October of the golden nine silver ten has passed by half, but potash market still hasn’t improved. In the short term, potash prices may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, last week (10.14-18) the domestic adipic acid market was slightly lower than that of the previous week, and the dealers’ quotation was mainly reduced. The market price was reduced to 50-100 yuan / ton, with a decline percentage of 0.21%. As of the end of the week, the quotation is generally 8300-8450 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis and comment

Last week, the adipic acid market continued to maintain a weak market after the festival. Last week, the market did not improve. The traditional peak season of “silver ten” was completely blown out in the middle and late ten days. At present, most regions of the country maintain stability, and some of them have declined. Most dealers have successively reduced their quotations by about 100 yuan / ton. The markets in East China and South China have declined. The market atmosphere is slightly bleak, and dealers are active. Goods oriented, the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality, the transaction is slightly stalemate, and there is room for businesses to save and transfer profits.

In terms of supply, affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders, the market supply only keeps increasing, and many dealers say that the inventory pressure is large, the plant operation rate of manufacturers is high, the market inventory and the manufacturer’s inventory have increased, and the market has staged stock up behavior at the end of September, and now the downstream procurement is still rational. Affected by this, the stock taking in the middle of the month slightly slows down. Among them, there are also relatively low-cost sources flooding the market. There is a certain bargaining space for products, and the price difference between the market price offer and the firm offer remains. Dealers in North China, East China and South China adjust their quotations to varying degrees, and most regions maintain a stable market.

In terms of demand, the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The traditional “silver ten” market did not arrive on schedule this year. The downstream operating rate is still slightly insufficient. The operating rate is basically above 50%, which does not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. In terms of cost, the upstream pure benzene market is still sluggish, and the downward trend is more and more clear. From the 8th to the 18th of October after the festival, according to business. According to social monitoring, the decline rate of pure benzene has reached 6.13%, which undoubtedly brings more cost negative to adipic acid market. At the same time, adipic acid manufacturers also have a certain space to make profit shipment possible. The market has gradually returned to plain, and the market has entered the inventory elimination cycle. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the reference price in the East China market is about 8300-8450 yuan / ton, and the quotation in South China is generally 8400-8500 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to adipic acid analyst of business and chemical branch, adipic acid is still sluggish and not getting better in the near future. At the same time, the whole chemical industry is also in a downward cycle. According to the Statistics Bureau, PPI fell 1.2% year on year in September, and the industry’s negative also covers the adipic acid industry chain. In addition, the lack of downstream demand is still the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the haze. Adipic acid market is expected to remain weak in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, this week’s decline of pure benzene continued last week. On Friday, the price of pure benzene fell at 5300-5750 yuan / ton, while on Friday, the price of pure benzene fell at 5000-5600 yuan / ton, or 3.06%.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: this week, the pure benzene market has a strong bearish atmosphere. The coking industry continues to break new lows. In addition, some downstream maintenance in East China and North China has greatly reduced the demand, and the pure benzene market continues to decline.

2. Crude oil: the overall international oil price rose first and then fell this week, with great volatility. Oil prices rose sharply last week as Iranian oil tankers attacked. In the later period, the International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth expectations and the increase of us oil product storage, which increased market worries and led to a sharp drop in oil prices. WTI was down 0.35% and Brent was up 0.54% compared with last Friday (October 11).

3. Related industries: this week, the downstream styrene continued to decline, down 5.86% week-on-week, with a large negative impact, and the pure benzene market is difficult to recover; this week, aniline rose slightly due to the preparation of shipping, with a small impact on pure benzene.

4. External market: the price of pure benzene in the external market continued to decline this week, and rose slightly on Friday, which was negative for the pure benzene market.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: next week, the oil price will continue to consolidate at a low level, with a heavy bearish atmosphere in the market.

2. Domestic market: at present, there are many overhauls and weak demand in the North China market; some downstream devices are overhauled and weak market support; in addition, the styrene in the downstream has a large decline and the market mentality is short. However, pure benzene fell sharply for two weeks in a row, and the market dare not blindly catch up.

Overall, it is expected that the trend of pure benzene will continue to be weak next week, or continue to decline but not much.