1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic propane market continued to decline by a large margin. On February 24, the average price of propane market was 4062.5 yuan / ton, and on February 28, the average price was 3717.5 yuan / ton, down 8.49% in the week, down 7.18% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic propane market continued to decline, with a large margin, and the market transaction atmosphere turned weak. As of February 28, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so it was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3650 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3600 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3770 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3700 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3650 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The factory price of propane is 3800 yuan / ton.

This week, propane showed a continuous downward trend. Although the early downstream demand has increased, coupled with high-speed free, there are many replenishment operations in this favorable situation. However, affected by the global epidemic warming, crude oil continued to decline sharply this week, with a negative market mentality and a more cautious and wait-and-see mentality in the downstream. This week, the price of civil gas is also mainly downward. In March, CP price is expected to fall, and terminal consumption has not been fully recovered. Under multiple negative conditions, the market transaction atmosphere turns weak, the manufacturer’s late shipment is not smooth, the inventory gradually rises, and the price continues to fall.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are sulfur (18.44%), liquid ammonia (7.51%) and ammonium chloride (2.44%). There are 29 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 2.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are propane (- 8.49%), epichlorohydrin (- 7.81%) and R134a (- 5.00%). This week’s average was – 0.33%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the terminal market has not been fully recovered, and the market demand is limited. In addition, the international crude oil has fallen sharply. In March, the CP price is expected to fall. Multiple negative factors affect the market mentality. The atmosphere for manufacturers to ship goods has been weakened, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected that the market trend will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2175.00 yuan / ton, down 10.12% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market is temporarily stable, February 28 potassium chloride commodity index was 69.05.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in February, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 24, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5760 yuan / ton, which was 4.35% higher than that of the same period last month and 9.37% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market continued to decline.

2、 Market analysis

Product: weak operation of domestic ethanol market. After the price in Henan has been lowered for many times, the downstream demand is still weak, the inventory of enterprises has increased, some enterprises have been shut down, and the shipping price of enterprises has been continuously reduced; the price in East China has been lowered again, and the price continues to weaken under the support of shipping mentality; the stock of large factories in Northeast China is not high at present, and the order delivery price remains stable; the supply of goods in South China has increased significantly, which is bad for South China Regional market prices continued to be weak.

Industry chain: corn: corn price fluctuates in a narrow range. The state has issued various policies to guarantee the supply of corn in the market. The market volume has increased steadily. The shortage of local corn supply has been alleviated, and the overall price rise has slowed down. At present, the surplus grain inventory at the grass-roots level is still on the high side, and the pressure of centralized grain sales still exists. However, due to the long period of resumption of pig production and the resurgence of avian influenza, the market is generally pessimistic about the demand expectation. It is expected that in late February and March, with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the transportation link will gradually resume smooth, the supply of corn will gradually recover in the later period, and the space for corn price to continue to rise will be gradually limited, and it is expected that the price will continue to be strong and bullish in the short term.

Ethyl acetate: domestic ethyl acetate market fell. After the support of ethanol surge in the early stage, the quotation price of ethyl acetate continued to be high, followed by the increase of spot supply in the market, and the market competition intensified on the basis of the continued weak demand in the downstream. In addition, the recent consecutive decline of raw material acetic acid has given the cost side of ethyl acetate a benefit, and the market has been passively declining under the negative situation in all aspects.

3、 Future forecast

Business alcohol analysts expect that some areas of the short-term ethanol market are likely to decline. Although the inventory of large factories in Northeast China is not high, but the current price has increased compared with that of before. With the price of Henan continues to weaken, some traders have not high desire to take goods from Northeast China, which will cause a decrease in the volume of goods shipped from Northeast China, and enterprises may reduce their quotations to stimulate the shipment. In East China, the profits of production enterprises are still good, but with the inflow of low-cost goods, there is no rule out that there is a holding It is possible to continue the downward trend; at present, there is still a small profit in the price of Henan market, and it is unlikely that enterprises will continue to reduce prices substantially under the support of costs. It is expected that the short-term Henan market will be slightly weaker; due to the obvious increase in the supply of goods in South China, and the current stable situation of downstream demand, it is expected that the short-term South China market will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the domestic dry process aluminum fluoride Market Price held steady this week, with the average market price at the beginning of the week of 8933 yuan / ton and at the end of the week of 9166 yuan / ton, up 2.61% from last week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable: the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 8500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9500 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising. In recent years, the on-site manufacturers are not in good condition. Affected by the epidemic situation, some manufacturers have not resumed production temporarily. In addition, the transportation aspect is slow to change. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight. In addition, the inventory of enterprises not shut down during the Spring Festival in the lower reaches is exhausted, and the purchase demand is increased. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is higher, and the price of fluorite is still high in the near future The market price of hydrofluoric acid has been supported to a certain extent, and the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the South was 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market was 10500-11000 yuan / ton. Most of the aluminum fluoride manufacturers have not yet started work this week, and the price of aluminum fluoride has remained stable, but the price of aluminum fluoride in Zerun energy and chemical industry in Zhengzhou has been increased by 700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society believe that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise slightly as the resumption of work of enterprises around the country improves. The downstream market price of aluminum fluoride is stable as a whole, and it is expected that the market price of aluminum fluoride will rise steadily next week.

1、 Price trend

In the past week, the domestic propane market continued to rise. On February 10, the average price of the propane market was 3700 yuan / ton, and on February 17, the average price was 3857.5 yuan / ton, up 4.26% in seven days. The price was 4.64% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane market has been rising continuously in the past week, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively mild. As of February 17, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group has no propane in stock, so it will not offer any price temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3700 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3680 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The ex factory price of propane of Industrial Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton.

Propane has shown an upward trend in the past week, and the market trading atmosphere is moderate. The rise of international crude oil has brought a certain boost to the market, and the rebound of civil gas has brought good results. The demand for inventory and replenishment in the lower reaches, together with the gradual recovery of transportation in various regions, has improved the overall market transaction atmosphere. The manufacturer’s shipment is relatively smooth, and the inventory pressure is gradually relieved. At present, it is controllable and continuously upward.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast

With the gradual recovery of transportation and the replenishment of the downstream market, the manufacturer’s inventory has been eased. At present, the inventory is controllable, coupled with the reduction of domestic supply, and the mentality is relatively strong. It is expected that the market trend will be good in the short term, with the possibility of continuing upward.

At the beginning of the week (2.17), according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of liquid ammonia in China was slightly lower than that at the end of last week, most of which were lower than that at the end of last week. Some enterprises in the northern region were slightly lower, but the range was not large, at 50-100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, today’s drop of liquid ammonia was 0.64%, which was 5% lower than that at the beginning of last week. However, compared with the year before, the drop of liquid ammonia price was obvious, generally 500%- 600 yuan / ton, down more than 8.5%, mainly because on the one hand, affected by the epidemic situation, the start-up of enterprises was generally delayed after the year, although the start-up rate of liquid ammonia manufacturers remained stable, but the dealers’ return rate was not high, the market entered a window period, and generally fell into a state of closure. On the other hand, at present, transportation is still the primary problem that plagues the industry, liquid ammonia transportation also entered a bottleneck period, long-distance high-speed transportation Due to the limited transportation and the superposition of multiple factors, the liquid ammonia still hasn’t got rid of the weak situation. The quotation of enterprises in Shandong and Hebei, the main production area, has been continuously lower. On February 17, some manufacturers still made a downward move, but the range has been narrowed. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of the week, the liquid ammonia in North China also remained stable. The lack of demand led to the slow delivery of liquid ammonia, which was converted to urea to control the ammonia volume. The inventory pressure of the enterprise was slightly relieved, but at present, there are many downstream stoppages, and the transportation was blocked. Last week, the price fell by about 100 yuan, which was temporarily stable at the beginning of the week. The main quotation in North China was 2500-2600 yuan / ton up and down.

In Hebei Province, at the beginning of the week, the quotation of some liquid ammonia manufacturers was slightly lower, with a range of 50 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the production and transportation problems were relatively serious, and the production and sales were not prosperous. On the other hand, the pressure of environmental protection was still not negligible, which led to limited production and shutdown of enterprises. Especially, the downstream dealers were generally closed, the inventory of enterprises could not be cleared in time, there were many inventories, and the price was mainly down The main quotation is 2530-2600 yuan / ton.

Last week, the market in Central China mainly declined, and it gradually stabilized at the beginning of this week. The shipment pressure in Hubei is significantly higher than that before the festival. Transportation is the most difficult area. Part of Henan Province is affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price yield is more. At present, the liquid ammonia market is shrouded in a negative atmosphere and weak operation. The mainstream quotation in Henan is 2450-2550 yuan / ton. In addition, the northwest region is not smooth, and the enterprise quotation has dropped to 2400 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the current market remains weak adjustment, and the manufacturer’s operating rate increases, but the poor sales lead to the increase of inventory, and the enterprise’s quotation mainly goes down. Most enterprises have room for profit. It is expected that many of the later units will be converted to urea production, and the liquid ammonia inventory pressure may be eased to a certain extent. In addition, with the advent of the spring farming season, the downstream nitrogen fertilizer production will be expanded Zhang, it is expected that the short-term market will be stable and the medium-term price will rebound.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the domestic copper price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic spot copper at the beginning of the week was 45355 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 45646.67 yuan / ton, up 0.64%, down 4.84% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Copper and copper prices: the Shanghai copper index rebounded after falling to 45390 yuan at the beginning of this week. It closed at 45530 yuan at the end of the week, up 0.66%. This week, LME copper’s three-month contract focus gradually moved up, with the price rising to $5814.5 from a low of $5638, and closing at $5791 on Friday, up 2.41%.

At the beginning of this week, the market resumed work one after another, but the downstream construction was limited. Now most enterprises in the country are preparing to resume production, but the actual production is expected to be 17 days later. East China and South China, where copper processing and terminal consumption are relatively concentrated, are also the places where the epidemic is more serious. Enterprises still face the dilemma of personnel flow and logistics not yet recovered when they return to work. The orders of processing enterprises are few and the delivery time is delayed, and the complete return to work is at least to the end of February. At present, the pressure superimposed logistics of the smelter is blocked, or the smelter is forced to reduce production or overhaul in advance.

3、 Future prospects

According to the above situation, the copper analyst of non ferrous branch of business cooperation thinks that: the short-term increase of domestic inventory is obvious, the downstream construction is not good, and the risk of sulfuric acid expansion is increased (sulfuric acid must be produced in the smelting process, and the storage capacity of sulfuric acid is a fixed value), which forces the smelter to reduce production or overhaul before the end of February. At the current rework peak, the impact of the uncertainty of the epidemic on the metal market demand is still ongoing. It is expected that copper The price maintained a narrow range of volatility.

1、 Price trend

The market for methyl ether fell on Tuesday. On February 3, the average market price of DME was 3340 yuan / ton, and on February 7, the average market price was 3116.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 6.69% in the week. The price was 9.4% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market price of methyl ether (Henan) fell on Tuesday, and the market transaction atmosphere was flat. As of February 7, the equipment of Yutai in Hebei, Henan lankaohuitong, Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan, Shandong Yuhuang dimethyl ether, Shanxi Lanhua science and technology venture Co., Ltd. had been stopped for maintenance, and no quotation was made temporarily; the equipment of dimethyl ether in Xinyuan of Yima in Henan had failed, and no quotation was made temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 3250 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3150 yuan / ton, and that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton.

On Tuesday, the market of dimethyl ether fell significantly. At present, the operating rate of the market of dimethyl ether is at a low level. Affected by the traffic during the Spring Festival, the inventory digestion of most enterprises is slow. Under the inventory pressure of some manufacturers, the inventory is mainly digested by parking, and Hebei xinlianxin operates at a low load. The gas market is also dominated by the decline, the end-users delay the start-up, the market demand is significantly reduced, and the market mentality is negative. At present, the price of DME is relatively low.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top two commodities are power coal (1.47%) and petroleum coke (1.38%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are dimethyl ether (- 6.69%), Brent crude oil (- 2.98%) and liquefied gas (- 2.23%). This week’s average was – 0.82%.

3、 Future forecast

This week, the market operating rate continued to run at a low level. Although the decrease in market supply has eased, the demand is relatively weak. At present, most of the manufacturers still have inventory pressure, but there is little room for decline. It is expected that the market will stabilize next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 10, the average market price of butanone was around 8866.87 yuan / ton based on the quotation of several sample enterprises, which was slightly increased by 33 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival (January 21), and the market was stable as a whole.

2、 Market analysis

Products: after the Spring Festival, affected by the logistics and transportation and the downstream resumption of work delay. The domestic butanone market is light, the overall recovery of the domestic butanone market is limited, the market transportation is blocked, the market circulation speed is slow, most of the current spot goods are pre-determined sources of goods before the year, the supply side is limited, the price fluctuation is limited, and the trade logistics and demand links are shrinking. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic butanone market is flat. On July 7, the butanone market in South China was cold and weak. The price of butanone is 8900-9000 yuan / ton. The butanone market in East China has less transactions. The market reference price is 8650-8750 yuan / ton. The delivery price of Shandong Dongming pear chemical butanone is 8700 yuan / ton. East China logistics is basically in Stagnant state, most of the current spot goods are pre-determined sources of goods years ago, and the price fluctuation is limited. Ningbo Jinfa butanone factory price reference 875 – yuan / ton; Northwest Lanzhou Petrochemical butanone factory price reference 8500 yuan / ton; North China butanone market reference price in 8600 – 8700 yuan / ton. There is no pressure on the spot stock of the port, and the market is waiting.

Industrial chain: last week, the domestic liquefied gas market was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was flat. As of February 7, the price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3850 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3850 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3620 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3450 yuan / ton, from Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group is 4200 yuan / ton, The price of LPG of Sinopec Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 3500 yuan / ton. The price of Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 3400 yuan / ton. Last week, the liquefied gas market (Shandong) continued to decline. After the holiday, the international crude oil fell mainly, which created a negative effect on the market. At present, the terminal market is delayed to start, and the demand is significantly reduced. The downstream market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not good. The manufacturer’s shipment has been blocked continuously, and the inventory pressure is relatively obvious. Although there is a demand for storage and replenishment after the festival, the market has not improved at present, and the price has been continuously weak.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top two commodities are power coal (1.47%) and petroleum coke (1.38%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are dimethyl ether (- 6.69%), Brent crude oil (- 2.98%) and liquefied gas (- 2.23%). This week’s average was – 0.82%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business club, with the improvement of the downstream construction situation and the gradual recovery of the market atmosphere, it is expected that the market turnover will pick up this week.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.20% from 1673.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1676.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 12.10% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 77.98 on January 17.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1650 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1670 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1710 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: the current domestic market trading atmosphere is general, downstream risk awareness is strong, dare not hoard a large number of goods. The orders of enterprises increased slowly during the Spring Festival, agricultural goods were properly prepared, and the demand in the downstream was on demand. Some board factories began to have holidays, and the demand in the downstream slowed down. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate slightly. Next, pay attention to the downstream holiday and gas recovery.

Industry chain: the upstream products as a whole seem to have increased slightly: the price of natural gas rose slightly, with the quotation rising 0.76% from 3066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3090.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 41.51% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 1.11% from 3006.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3040.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 5.98% compared with the same period last year, overall It seems that urea cost support is strong this week. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with the price of 5933.33 yuan / ton. The purchasing capacity in the downstream was average, which had a negative impact on the price of urea. At the same time, the lower level of the downstream rubber plate plant has a negative impact on urea.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the urea market in Shandong Province mainly fluctuated slightly. According to urea analysts of business association, at present, some manufacturers are affected by environmental protection factors, with low start-up level; while the demand is still weak, coupled with the low start-up level of rubber plate manufacturers, the industrial demand has also declined. At present, the domestic market does not have a greater positive support. It is expected that the short-term market will be consolidated at a low level.