Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuates narrowly. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregate MDI is 12800 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, 12725 yuan/ton at the weekend, 0.59% in the week, 2.68% in the same period of last month and 17.90% in the same period of last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the market of MDI converged in three twists and turns, first falling, then rising, and finally stabilized. At the beginning of the week, the guideline price of Shanghai Cosco’s founding factory was not clearly announced, but the market was informed that the guideline price had dropped significantly. On-site negative atmosphere spread, the market low turnover increment. With the continuous fermentation and spread of crude oil incidents, the mentality of the operators has been greatly affected. The downstream terminal customers actively enter the market to collect goods, and the holders actively maintain the shipment status based on the accumulated inventory. Later, with the unexpected greening of crude oil, the active atmosphere of the market was instantly extinguished, and the purchasing volume of the downstream for a period of time was also completed. The positive atmosphere of the market transaction was reduced. However, in view of the previous large volume of shipments, the stockholder relieved the inventory pressure and reluctantly sold. September should be in the peak season of traditional northern thermal insulation enterprises, but this year’s “Golden Nine” has not been quiet due to the impact of previous environmental inspections and Sino-US trade wars.

On the market side, as of Friday (9.20), the North China Polymerized MDI market was deadlocked, the overall atmosphere in the field was low, the turnover was short, and the vendors’offer was stable and low-priced. At present, the quotation of Shanghai bucket carrying ticket is 11600-11700 yuan/ton, and that of PM200 bucket carrying ticket is 12500-12600 yuan/ton. East China Polymerization MDI market is weak and deadlocked, the atmosphere on the floor remains light, the transaction is not smooth, the traders offer more stable and low prices. At present, the quotation of Shanghai bucket carrying ticket is 11600-11700 yuan/ton, and that of PM200 bucket carrying ticket is 12500-12800 yuan/ton. South China Polymerization MDI market is weak, the atmosphere is light, business is not smooth, business offer is stable, low price is the main price. At present, the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 11600-11700 yuan/ton, and the quotation of PM200 barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 12600-12800 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene rose. Saudi oil field was attacked, crude oil surged early in the week, driving FOB Korea pure benzene to rise more than $50 per ton, and East China pure benzene offer also exceeded 6000 yuan per ton. Sinopec’s listing rose to 5900 yuan/ton in time. However, as the industry expects Saudi crude oil facilities to recover soon, this round of increase is only due to short-term psychological support, difficult to sustain, and the downstream has established stockpiles of raw materials, so there is no willingness to pursue this round of rise downstream factories, trading only occurred in the hands of traders. With Saudi Arabia’s announcement that crude oil will return to its pre-attack production level by the end of September and that Saudi oil exports will not decrease in September, supply risk concerns have eased and international oil prices have plunged. After losing the good support of crude oil, the market mentality changed, and the internal and external markets subsequently fell.

Graph.100ppi.com (500 x 300)

Aniline: Within a week, the domestic aniline market rose sharply, with an increase of 800-820 yuan/ton. In terms of raw materials, due to the Saudi Arabian incident, crude oil soared after the festival, once driving the price of pure benzene to more than 6,000 yuan/ton, and Sinopec raised it to 5,900 yuan/ton. However, with the rebound of crude oil, the price of pure benzene rationally returned to the vicinity of 5900 yuan/ton. On-site pure benzene spot is tight, the market is still strong. This week, the average tender price of pure benzene in Jinling, Shandong Province, rose 148 yuan from last week, and aniline cost support is strong. At the same time, Tianji 9.15 accidental parking, a small amount of goods only for core customers, resulting in a large number of downstream users such as Henan to find goods in Shandong, Shandong enterprises aniline plan, low inventory, rising prices, and began to limit delivery. In the East China market, Yangnong plant only maintains normal operation and has no product output for the time being. In addition to the main supplier contract customers, Nanhua’s main spare shipments release a small amount of goods on the market. The sales pressure of East China enterprises is low, and the price keeps rising in North China.

3. Future Market Forecast

It is expected that near the end of the month, in addition to the small amount of goods on hand, agents are reluctant to sell, and market prices are strong. Despite the limited downstream picking efforts, the trend of price decline is not obvious under the support of cost. Analysts of business associations aggregate MDI expect that next week domestic aggregate MDI market price range shocks dominate. Pay close attention to the price guidelines and supply policies of Shanghai factories.

Price Trend

This week (9.16-9.20) the domestic 1# tin ingot Market slightly declined, with the average domestic market price at 141262.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 13722.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 2.87%.

On September 20, the tin commodity index was 69.89, down 0.2 points from yesterday, down 30.28% from the cycle peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 63.07% from the December 09, 2015 low of 42.86 points. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Futures market: This week Lunxi concussion downward, early in the week Lunxi by the impact of domestic Shanghai Tin night trading rose to a weekly high of $17145/ton, and then as crude oil prices fell all the way down concussion, as of Friday 18:30, Lunxi’s latest price was $16560/ton, a weekly decline of $190/ton, a decline of 1.13%, trading volume of 1495 hands, holding. The warehouse volume is 18,000 hands, reducing by 1,002 hands. This week’s Shanghai Tin Stock Exchange maintained a general trend of shock consolidation after its low jump at the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai Tin fell rapidly to its weekly low of 135350 yuan/ton, and then recovered to its weekly high of 139250 yuan/ton. On Friday, the Shanghai Tin futures market opened low and rose again at the end. It closed at 136890 yuan/ton on Friday, falling by 4760 yuan/ton, or 3.36 percent, with a turnover of 182,000 hands, a position of 38,000 hands and a decrease of 1936 hands.

Domestic market: Spot market was dragged down by futures market this week, falling to 13600-138000 yuan/ton as of Friday. Downstream purchasing intention warmed up and the market atmosphere was more active. As for lifting and discounting, as of Friday, for the Shanghai Tin 2001 contract, the lifting price of packed Panyun Tin is 600-800 yuan/ton, the lifting price of ordinary Yunzi is 100 yuan/ton, and that of small brand is 100-300 yuan/ton.

Industry Event: WBMS: The global tin supply gap is 4,800 tons from January to July 2019: London, September 18, 2010. According to data released Wednesday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global tin supply gap is 4,800 tons from January to July 2019. Total reported inventories were 6,500 tons higher than at the end of 2018, but this included 6,000 tons of unexplained increases in Indonesian inventories. Global refined tin production increased by 3,000 tons from January to July 2019 compared with the same period last year. Asia’s output increased by 2,500 tons year on year. Apparent demand in China increased by 8% year on year. The global demand for tin from January to July 2019 was 219.7 million tons, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 16.5 million tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year. In July 2019, the output of refined tin was 33,000 tons and the consumption was 35,500 tons.

Non-ferrous industries: This week, the US dollar index shook in the high range of 98.2-98.6, the British break-off event further fermented the pound plunge, the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a partial hawk, the US dollar high was stable, triggering market fears about the weakening of the global economy; Saudi Arabia said after the attack that it would soon resume production, crude oil rushed back to high. As a result, basic metals fell, with Shanghai Tin Week falling by 3.36%.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week is the last trading week before the National Day holiday, and there are long orders for delivery in the first half of the week. With the coming week, the pre-holiday hedging mood will gradually increase. Whether spot or futures, hedging and bagging will be the main safety. The market will be characterized by rising first and then falling. The domestic spot tin price as a whole will be next week. Or slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average price quoted by mainstream carbide producers rose from 2850.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2950.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.51%, down 3.73% from the same period last year. Overall, the market of calcium carbide rose slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index of 77.29 on September 20.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly: Ovidiang’s offer for the weekend was 2900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s offer for the weekend was 2750 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia and China Federation’s offer for calcium carbide this week was 3000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week. The price of Ningxia Xingping Calcium Carbide is 2950 yuan/ton this week, which is 150 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2700-3000 yuan/ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2700-2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: This week’s coke ex-factory quotation was temporarily stable, at 1716.67 yuan/ton, down 30.57% from the same period last year. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream has fallen considerably and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC ex-factory prices rose this week. The price of PVC rose from 6685.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6795.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 110 yuan/ton, up 1.65%, down 0.59% from the same period last year. Downstream PVC market rose, downstream customers increased their enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. Overall, it seems that this week’s rise in PVC market has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably, the cost support is not enough, and the positive impact on the price of calcium carbide is limited. However, the price of PVC in the downstream has risen considerably, basically keeping the level with last year’s price, and the enthusiasm of customers in the downstream for the purchase of calcium carbide has increased. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will rise concussively in late September, and the ex-factory price may be maintained at around 3000 yuan/ton.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

Epichlorohydrin market prices have risen this week, according to business associations’big list data. As of September 20, the average price of epichlorohydrin was 14333.33 yuan/ton, up 10.26% from the beginning of the week and 14.97% from August 20.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Epichlorohydrin market prices rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin was around 13000-14000 yuan/ton. The manufacturer had no pressure on delivery. The mentality of bidding was obvious. It was difficult to find low-price sources. The downstream purchase was operated cautiously and the follow-up of delivery was slow. In the middle of the week, the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin rose to about 14500 yuan/ton, the high offer of the holder, the rising mood remained unchanged, the downstream follow-up raw materials, and epichlorohydrin just needed to be purchased. On Friday, the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin rose to about 1450-15000 yuan/ton, and there was a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see.

Industry chain: This week, the market price of propylene in Shandong upstream rose sharply and then slowly fell, with a weekly increase of 0.69%. The prices of propylene enterprises in Shandong rose by about 300/ton on the 16th and 17th, and remained flat on the 18th. The prices of propylene enterprises slightly declined on the 19th and 20th. At present, the market turnover is around 7850-8150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7850 yuan/ton. Up to the 20th, the downstream epoxy resin, supported by the cost side, the focus of discussion is high and firm.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 3.64%.

3. Future market forecast:

Analysts of business association epichlorohydrin think that the upstream propylene market is slightly rising, which has little impact on epichlorohydrin. With the end of partial replenishment stocks in downstream factories and the return to on-demand purchasing, the market quotation of epichlorohydrin has risen, but the high-end transaction is also slightly difficult. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the field. The space for further increase of epichlorohydrin in the later period is restricted by the weak downstream buying atmosphere. However, it does not rule out the possibility that factories will continue to rally. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will remain rigid in the short term.

On September 12, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 12th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 2 US dollars/ton on September 11. The closing price is 772-774 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 791-793 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On September 11, WTI crude oil futures fell to $55.75 per barrel, or $1.65. Brent crude oil futures fell to $60.81 per barrel, or $1.57. Statistics released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Tuesday showed that due to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria and Iraq, Brent crude oil futures fell to $60.81 per barrel. Increased production offset the production cuts in Venezuela and Libya. OPEC’s average daily oil production in August was 29.71 million barrels, an increase of 230,000 barrels compared with the average daily oil production in July. The decline in crude oil prices has a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products and temporarily stabilized the price trend of xylene market. Recently, the textile industry has been slightly lower, PTA market starting rate has risen, PTA price has slightly declined on the 12th day. The average price in East China has been raised near 5200-5300 yuan/ton. As of the 11th day, domestic PTA starting rate has risen to 97.7%, and polyester industry starting rate is about 90%. Due to the increase of PTA supply, the trading atmosphere has declined. Traders are the main buyers, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, downstream PTA market prices slightly lower, there are many negative factors in the market, it is expected that the price of PX market will maintain a low level in the short term.

First, the trend of the market:
According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen, with the price of phthalic anhydride at the end of the weekend at 6633.33 yuan/ton, down 14.82% from the same period last year. About 6500-6600 yuan/ton of o-phthalic anhydride in Shandong and 6700-6800 yuan/ton of phthalic anhydride in Jiangsu are the mainstream of phthalic anhydride negotiations, and the market spot supply is normal. The naphthalene phthalic anhydride plant starts normally, and the current quotation is 6200-6300 yuan/ton. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply.

II. Market analysis:

Product: This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply. Recently, due to the shortage of raw materials, the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply. The market opening rate of phthalic anhydride has been maintained at about 70%, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream factories have just to be purchased, the inventory situation of factories is general, and the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood – 6,800 yuan/ton, the main stream of negotiation of naphthalene method is 6,100-6,300 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6,500-6,600 yuan/ton, the market price has risen sharply, the quotation of enterprises in North China has risen, downstream construction is normal, purchasing on demand is dominant, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running steadily, and the market is on the move. The situation has improved, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply. Even though the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, some manufacturers still reflect that they are still at a loss stage.

Upstream: The domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 6300 yuan/ton, the import price of o-phthalic anhydride in port area is rising, the quotation is temporarily stable, the recent market of o-phthalic anhydride in port is rising, some enterprises quote more than 7500 yuan/ton, the stock of port is declining, and the quotation of o-phthalic acid is rising concussively. The actual transaction price is Detailed discussion, upstream price trend is good for domestic phthalic anhydride market price, phthalic anhydride market price trend has risen substantially.

Downstream: The price of DOP in the downstream has risen recently, and the domestic market price of DOP is 7550 yuan/ton by the end of the week. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride of DOP raw materials has risen sharply, the price of isooctanol has been stable and the cost of DOP has risen. DOP price shocks rise, DOP downstream shocks maintain stability, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks maintain stability, DOP market mainstream transaction price around 7550-7800 yuan/ton, for upstream phthalic anhydride demand has increased, phthalic anhydride market prices have been affected by the rise.

Industry: Recently, the market of plasticizer industry has improved, the demand downstream terminal has not changed much, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has risen.

3. Future market forecast:

At present, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the upstream is rising, and the terminal demand has not changed much. Affected by cost support, the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising. The analyst of business association phthalic anhydride thinks that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to rise, with the price at 6500 yuan/ton.

I. Rising and falling lists

According to the price monitoring of Business Association (100ppi.com), there are 11 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices in the 35th week of 2019 (9.2-9.6). The top three commodities are natural rubber (3.14%), EPS (2.54%) and cis-butadiene rubber (2.26%). There are two kinds of goods falling in the ring-to-ring ratio, PA66 (-1.44%) and LDPE (-0.31%) respectively. This week’s average rise and fall was 0.84%. Among them, the natural rubber ring rose by 3.14% and 5.97% year-on-year.

II. Commodity Index

On September 6, the natural rubber commodity index was 32.53, down 0.23 points from yesterday, down 67.47% from the peak of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 15.56% from the low of 28.15 points on November 25, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

3. Market Trend

In the first half of 2019, the market of natural rubber was ups and downs, while in the second half, it was still quite distressing. The first quarter experienced a sharp increase of nearly 10% in February, and fell back to the starting line in March. The second quarter rebounded 4% in April and then started the decline mode until the last trading day when the Customs announced the policy of “mixing rubber classification” began to rise. In May, the price of rubber continued to rise. The impact of classification and inspection of mixed rubber, high temperature and drought and insect pests was tremendous. Especially, the shortage of new rubber supply caused worries about future supply. The price of Tianguo had risen by 10%, followed by a drop in sentiment and a three-point decline in the price shock of rubber. June continued to be a weak shock, a monthly decline of 5.7%, known as “business is very difficult to do”. In the first half of July, Tianjiao shocks dropped until the 16th RU1909 contract closed at 10460 points, down 150 points on the same day, the lowest point of the month, with a decline of 8.15% on the 1st to 16th days. After that, Tianjiao shocks rebounded in the second half of the month and then decreased slightly, with the main contract closing at 10670 points on the last trading day of the month. On August 12th, Tianjiao 20 rubber was listed on the market in the last period of energy. Full latex futures continued to be weak. The highest price was 10,624 yuan/ton on the 31st day, the lowest was 10,260 yuan/ton on the 2nd day, and the maximum monthly amplitude was 3.55%. From the morphological point of view, the first half of August showed an incomplete trend of “W” and the second half showed a trend of “V”, which was generally small in the current month. Amplitude shocks, weak market. Enter September, this Sunday glue market all the way up, Shanghai glue (whole emulsion) on Friday slightly callback, spot glue prices on the day of the decline is not much; 20 glue this week, the highest price 10450, the largest increase of about 3.91%, but after Friday callback, weekly closing at 10190, the increase basically fell back to the beginning of the week; According to business community (100ppi.com) monitoring data, 17, The mainstream quotation for SCRWF in East China was 10 634 yuan per ton on Monday (2 days) and 10 968 yuan per ton on Friday (6 days). The weekly increase was 3.14%.

IV. Factor Analysis

Rubber-producing factors: In August, the main natural rubber producing areas encountered bad weather, the weather returned to normal in the second half of the month, rubber tapping went smoothly in the peak season, and the output increased significantly. Recent data from the Association of Natural Rubber Producers (ANRPC) show that the global production of natural rubber in the first five months of 2019 was 4.93 million tons, down 6.5% year on year. At the same time, the world natural rubber consumption increased by 0.9% to 5.8 million tons, the gap between the two is less than 860,000 tons. The analysis shows that the reason is that the price of Tianguo has dropped from 40,000 to less than 10,000 tons. The sharp reduction of Tianguo income and the increase of costs such as tapping labor will lead to a sharp decrease in the enthusiasm of rubber farmers, and the output will be affected naturally.

Import and Export: China imports 553,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in July 2019, up 25.4% annually, down 3.15% from the same period last year, and 3629,000 tons in January-July, down 7.1% from 3994,000 tons in the same period last year. Vietnam: According to the Vietnam News Agency, data from the Import and Export Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam show that rubber exports and exports increased by 8.2% and 4.5% from January to July 2019, respectively, by 764,000 tons and 1.05 billion US dollars. In July, Vietnam’s rubber export volume and export volume reached 150,000 tons and 211 million US dollars respectively, which increased by 22.2% and 20.9% annually, respectively, and increased by 5.7% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively. The price of latex materials in Vietnam is also declining due to the fear that demand will decrease and the price of rubber market in the world will continue to decline. The decline in rubber prices is due to the prolongation of the Sino-US trade war and the slowdown of global economic growth, resulting in a decline in rubber demand. According to other statistics, Vietnam exported 116,000 tons to China in July, up 63.31% annually and 21.99% year-on-year. From January to July, exports to China reached 501,100 tons, an increase of 9.69% over the same period last year. Thailand: Data show that in June 2019, Thailand’s exports of natural rubber (including composite rubber) increased by 3.2% year-on-year and 11% year-on-year. Indonesia: Natural rubber exports in June 2019 were 225,000 tons, down 14.96% annually and up 1.4% year-on-year. Among them, standard rubber exports were 191,000 tons, mixed rubber 0.26 million tons and cigarette film 0.84 million tons. From January to June, the total export volume of natural rubber in Indonesia was 1.2974 million tons, down 13.11% from the same period last year. Malaysia: According to statistics released by the Bureau of Statistics, Malaysia’s natural rubber production in June was 36957 tons, down 107.5 million tons from 41,364 tons in the same period last year. The analysis shows that from September, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries jointly restrict the export of Tianguo expired, and the domestic import of Tianguo may increase.

Demand aspect: In August, tyre enterprises were limited by high temperature power limitation and typhoon storm, but after the typhoon, the start-up rate rebounded. As of August 30, 2019, the start-up load of all-steel tyres in Shandong tyre enterprises was 69.61%, 7.95 percentage points higher than the previous period, 10.53 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The start-up load of semi-steel tyres in domestic tire enterprises is 70.23%, which is 11.07 percentage points higher than the previous period and 17.27 percentage points higher than the same period last year. However, the peak season of all steel dealers is not strong and the stock is high. In the early days of National Day, strict environmental protection inspection will affect the start-up rate of enterprises. Statistics show that China’s tire production continued to decline in the first half of 2019, with a total tire output of 403,745,000 in January-June, down 1% from the same period last year; in July, China’s heavy truck sales of 76,000 vehicles, a 27% decline in the ring, a 2% increase over the same period last year; in January-July, the total sales of 732,300 vehicles, a 2% decrease over the same period last year. In July, China’s automobile production and sales declined by 5% and 12.1% respectively, 11.9% and 4.3% respectively, compared with the same period last year. From January to July, automobile production and sales completed 13.933 million vehicles and 14.132 million vehicles respectively, down 13.5% and 11.4% from the same period last year. In terms of export situation, the Sino-US trade war situation is still grim and export is affected.

Inventory: Domestic Tianguo inventory is still high, as of September 6, 2019, the last period of natural rubber inventory 46,6829 tons, warehouse receipts 42,2190 tons.

Informational factors:

1. Relaxation of automobile consumption: In mid-August, the State Council issued “Opinions on Speeding up the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption”, proposing 20 policy measures such as gradually relaxing or abolishing automobile purchase restrictions and supporting green intelligent commodities to replace old ones with new ones; in June, the State Development and Reform Commission and other three departments issued documents to prohibit the introduction of new automobiles everywhere. Vehicle purchase restrictions. Experts believe that the trend of “relaxation” can be seen from the document, together with the issue of “20 consumption items”, to promote China’s automobile consumption has become an overall tone, and the prospects for automobile production and marketing are optimistic.

2. Renminbi depreciation leads to cost increase: At present, the formula for calculating the import cost of natural latex is as follows: (US dollar shipping price * exchange rate + tariff)* (1 + 13%) + customs declaration and other miscellaneous charges, value-added tax 13%. Renminbi depreciation increases the import cost, the exchange rate depreciates from 6.9 to 7.2, and the import cost is about 400 yuan/ton. The superimposed cost of natural quotation increased and the price increased.

The statistical data of March and August declined: PMI of manufacturing industry declined in August, production, order, inventory and price index were weak, and there was downward pressure on economic operation. The renewed escalation of Sino-US trade frictions has impacted the development expectations of manufacturing industry. At the same time, the high temperature and rainy weather have a certain impact on the prosperity of manufacturing industry, the most important of which is the insufficient domestic demand. Facing the pressure of weakening demand, the analysis holds that on the one hand, we should expand effective domestic demand and further strengthen the stability of infrastructure construction; on the other hand, we should promote tax reduction and fee reduction, focus on reducing the operating costs of manufacturing enterprises, promote the expected improvement of production and investment of enterprises, and boost the confidence of manufacturing industry.

4. The central bank lowered its benchmark to promote liquidity: On the afternoon of September 6, the central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point cut in the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions in an all-round way on September 16. The release of funds could reach about 900 billion yuan. The commodity sector, especially commodities dominated by industrial attributes, may be vulnerable to such measures as benchmarking.

Relevant products: According to the data of business associations, the commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on September 6 was 34.02, which was the same as that of yesterday. The commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on September 6 was 66.78% lower than the highest point of 102.40 points (2011-09-25), 43.30% higher than the lowest point of 23.74 on February 04, 2015, and 34.52 on September 6, which was the same as that of yesterday. The highest point 103.60 points (2011-09-08) decreased by 66.68%, up 21.51% from the lowest point 28.41 on January 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

V. Future Market Forecast

Natural rubber analysts at the business association believe that by September, the number of multifaceted factors had increased. Among them, under the combined effects of macroeconomic environment, statistical data indicators, commodity circulation costs, downstream start-up rate and purchasing demand, the attention of natural rubber has recently risen and prices have risen. Although its production and inventory are still at a high level, and do not exclude speculative factors, we believe that under the recent impact of comprehensive factors of natural rubber, prices may still oscillate at a high level. At present, we should consider the seasonal consumption characteristics of autumn, and the “golden nine silver ten” consumption peak season deserves attention.

1. Melamine price trend:

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market price of melamine rose slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price of domestic melamine is 5500-6000 yuan/ton, up 1.08% compared with the beginning of the week, and down 0.53% compared with August 6.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Melamine market prices rose slightly this week. In recent days, the domestic melamine plant start-up rate is about 58%, the supply of goods is still acceptable, but downstream papermaking, sheet metal, moulding plastics and other industries start to slump, the actual demand is still poor, most manufacturers are cautious to receive goods, mostly wait-and-see. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5700 yuan/ton; and the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Henan is around 5700 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week raw material liquid ammonia stable operation, but the urea market is weak, prices fell, the weekly decline of 1.62%, the cost of melamine negative impact. Terminal demand is still flat, there is no substantive improvement, business people are more wait-and-see mentality.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were 31 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 8 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were butanone (13.06%), yellow phosphorus (11.51%) and mixed xylene (8.50%). There are 21 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-8.16%), lithium hydroxide (-6.14%) and lithium carbonate (-6.00%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.61%.

3. Future market forecast:

Business analysts believe that although the melamine market has a steady upward trend, there are no strong positive factors stimulating the upstream and downstream markets. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by consolidation and wait-and-see, focusing on information guidance such as environmental protection and production restriction.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the domestic market for 1_lead ingots shocked, with an average price of 16 387.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17 150 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.65%.

The lead commodity index on August 31 was 104.37, which was unchanged from yesterday. It was 22.12% lower than the cyclical peak of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 39.85% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: In August 2019, the overall situation of Lun-Pb was “w”. At the beginning of the month, Lun-Pb fell to $1932, and then rebounded at a low level. It continued to rise above $2100 and then sustained pressure. The rise slowed down. Since August 15, metal trend affected by the Sino-US trade war was under pressure. Lun-Pb rose and fell to about $2050. Lord, later hovering in this interval. The main lead contract in Shanghai futures market changed to 1910 contract in August, showing a low rebound trend, which continued to rise from low 16210 to high 17460. After that, the lead contract in Shanghai futures market fell slightly under the influence of trade war, but the range was not large. August spot market. The rebound trend of spot lead market in August is dominant. The mainstream price is about 17200-17300 yuan/ton by the end of the month. The monthly increase is about 600-800 yuan/ton. Near National Day, many domestic markets are affected by environmental protection, especially in Anhui, Henan, Hebei and other places, manufacturers have plans to reduce production. September is the traditional peak season of lead storage battery sales, but now it is. Goods prices are rising sharply near the end of the month. At present, digested stocks are dominant in the downstream, and the transaction is general, but the future market can be expected.

Supply and demand: According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on August 21, the global lead supply gap was 6,200 tons in June and 7,600 tons in May. In the first six months of 2019, the global lead supply gap expanded to 65,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 37,000 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on August 21, the global lead market supply gap was 191,000 tons in January-June 2019 and 281,000 tons in the whole year of 2018. By the end of June, the total stock had decreased by 24,000 tons compared with the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to June 2019, the global production of refined lead (primary and regenerated) was 6.201 million tons, an increase of 9.3% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 2.954 million tons, an increase of 582,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States increased by 0.7 million tons from January to June 2019. In June 2019, the output of refined lead was 1.025 million tons and the consumption was 1.0546 million tons.

Domestic events:

Announcement for public consultation on “Interim Measures for the Management of Lead Battery Recycling and Utilization” (Draft for Opinions):To implement the “Notice of the General Office of the State Council on the Implementation of the Producer Responsibility Extension System” (issued by the State Office [2016] 99), standardize the recycling and resource utilization of waste lead batteries In accordance with the Law of the People’s Republic of China on the Promotion of Circular Economy and the Law of the People’s Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Solid Waste Pollution and Environment, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, has organized and drafted the Interim Measures for the Management of Lead Battery Recycling and Utilization (Draft for Opinions). It is now open to the public for comments. .

Camel Group Co., Ltd. [Camel Group Co., Ltd.] Subsidiary of Hubei Chukai Metallurgy Co., Ltd. [ChuKai Metallurgy Co., Ltd.] intends to invest 110 million yuan to comprehensively recycle 100,000 tons of waste lead-acid batteries on August 15, 2019. And lead products for deep processing and transformation projects.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Entering September, the market is full of expectations for gold, silver and silver. The US dollar keeps rising and vigilantly declines. The rebound of crude oil also brings confidence to commodities. The surge of nickel transfers the source of confidence for the bulls in the market. The rhythm of basic metals may continue to rise steadily next week. Spot lead market will usher in a wave of rising space in September, boosted by supply cuts and the downstream peak season.

Price Trend

The domestic market of ethyl acetate continued to rise. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market of ethyl acetate in eastern China offered 5616 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and up to 5700 yuan/ton in eastern China, the overall increase was 1.48%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The domestic market of ethyl acetate has been shaking up. After the previous period of continuous rise, the high-price ethyl acetate is more resistant and the transaction is not smooth. Acetic acid rose in the middle of the week, cost support, followed by a significant rise. Up to now, the market offers are as follows: the mainstream reference offer in East China is 5700-5900 yuan/ton, the North China offer is 5650-5750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer in South China is 6300 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Acetic acid: The acetic acid plant in eastern China started at a low level, the market was bullish, and the supplier was basically at a high level. At present, the acetic acid market started to improve one after another, and the supply side became more and more abundant. There was a clear conflict between high-price acetic acid in the downstream and substantive digestion was insufficient. Ethanol market is relatively stable, the downstream basically maintained just need to purchase, anhydrous aspect of the current supply is sufficient, short-term is not determined as the main.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the recent small rise, the downstream for high-price ethyl acetate relatively conflicted, its procurement just needed to replenish the main, some enterprises after the accumulation of inventory negotiations have preferential, the market looks hollow, acetic acid raw material is still strong, cost-supported short-term ethyl acetate concession space is limited. Business associations expect the ethyl acetate Market to loosen next week and remain stable as a whole.