I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on November 1 was 1966 yuan / ton, and that on November 27 was 1950 yuan / ton, down 0.85% in the month. On November 27, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.27% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 5.12% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 1 was 2366 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 27 was 2285 yuan / ton, down 3.45% in the month. On November 27, DAP commodity index was 68.16, down 1.49 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 33.81% from 102.98, the highest on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Monoammonium: in November, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to be weak, and the enterprise operating rate was about 40%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: in November, the domestic market of diammonium phosphate was in a downturn, and the enterprise’s operating rate was about 40%. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 2250-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: at present, the domestic sulfur market demand is sluggish, the port inventory continues to increase, and the consumption is slow. The operators are obviously short of the future market, and the atmosphere of stalemate is strong. On the other hand, after the phosphate compound fertilizer meeting, there was no clear message guidance in the market, the external support was weak, the on-site negotiation atmosphere was cold, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was low. The domestic phosphorus ore market continued to operate in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some areas were slightly adjusted. The prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other areas remained high. The prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang area were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and the prices in the near future remained stable. Liquid ammonia market may continue to maintain weak, mainly due to weak demand in most regions, resulting in overstocking of inventory. The recent market does not rule out the possibility of continuing to explore low.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 1 rising commodity, 3 falling commodities and 5 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities that rose were ammonium sulfate (0.30%); the main commodities that fell were ammonium chloride (- 2.63%), urea (- 2.35%), monoammonium phosphate (- 0.85%). This week’s average was – 0.61%. In the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodities and 2 rising and falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry. The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (0.53%); the main commodities that fell were monoammonium phosphate (- 0.85%), phosphoric acid (- 0.62%). This week’s average was – 0.19%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that the market of ammonium phosphate keeps low. In some enterprises, the price of raw materials has fallen due to the maintenance of devices, the downstream procurement is cautious, the demand side has not improved, and the winter storage market is worrying. No favorable policies have been issued after the conference. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will continue to be weak in the later stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the headlines of phosphorus chemical industry to learn more about the market.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring of business association, the price of power coal continued to remain weak last week (11.18-11.22). At the beginning of the week, the price of power coal was around 559 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was around 558 yuan / ton, with a slight decline of 0.18% overall.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

With the arrival of domestic winter heating season, the domestic demand for power coal has improved, which has certain support for the price of power coal. According to the business agency, as of November 21, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.7227 million tons, with a daily consumption of 640500 tons and a usable life of 26.1 days.

The number of imported coal in China has decreased from a month on month basis. In the short term, power coal will be supported from the supply side. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in October 2019, China imported 11.53 million tons of power coal (including bituminous coal and sub bituminous coal, but excluding lignite, the same below), an increase of 2.47 million tons year on year, an increase of 27.26%, a decrease of 2.02 million tons month on month, a decrease of 14.91%. From January to October 2019, the total import of power coal was 107.05 million tons, an increase of 5.24 million tons, or 5.15%.

III. future forecast

Business analysts believe that: on the one hand, the supply of power coal is still sufficient, on the other hand, with the arrival of winter heating season demand has improved, overall, the price of power coal will maintain a weak balance in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, last week (11.18-22) domestic polysilicon did not maintain a strong market in the first ten days, the price fell slightly, the market gradually cooled down, and the pressure of supply and demand increased. As of November 22, according to the business club’s monitoring, the overall decline of domestic polysilicon solar energy level was 0.54%. The average external quotation of enterprises was 60000-62000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell 25% year on year About%. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 70000-730 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is not much different from that of the first ten days.

II. Market analysis

First of all, from the perspective of market supply, it is still dominated by oversupply. In the middle of the year, the domestic polysilicon supply performance is sufficient. By the end of the week, the domestic polysilicon enterprises have reached the peak of operation rate, and the early-stage maintenance devices have basically started, but some enterprises have not yet recovered to full production operation, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially the high proportion of polysilicon materials Silicon material factory. At present, there are 15 polysilicon producing enterprises in China, with an actual capacity of 396000 tons / year. Although some of them produce single crystals, the production of polysilicon materials is still close to 50% of the production. At present, the price of polysilicon is loose, but there is not much reduction. This is mainly because the inventory of polysilicon materials in silicon factories has not been greatly increased, and the enterprises do not have the intention to reduce the inventory. Even though the downstream ingot enterprises cut the operating rate or even shut down, this week’s price has not been significantly reduced.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since November, the demand for polysilicon has gradually cooled, and the market price drop in the middle of the year has not been significantly expanded, mainly because the downstream demand is rigid, but the downstream polysilicon chips present the same situation of unstable supply and demand as the upstream. The operating rate of downstream silicon chip manufacturers is only about 40%, because the downstream ingots, battery chips and other enterprises are open Because of the sharp decline in the production rate, the demand for polysilicon has been reduced. Most polysilicon manufacturers also execute early orders, and the new single rate is lower than that in October, so the price naturally declines to a certain extent.

III. future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market is loose, which is mainly due to the lack of timely follow-up of demand. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, the inventory pressure of enterprises is still under control, which also confirms the relative rigidity of market demand. However, there are also some variables in the medium term of the supply side, because there are some newly put into operation devices that release part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with load reduction. If the start-up load of enterprises in the later stage is further increased, there will be periodic excess supply. In particular, in the current situation that market demand has peaked, we cannot be overly optimistic about polysilicon market. It is expected that the market will be weak and stable in the near future, and we cannot rule out the possibility of continuing to explore in a small scale.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market turnover slightly shrank, the mentality was cautious, and the inventory remained low. This week, the domestic isomeric xylene market slightly increased by about 0.4%.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, the market transaction is stable this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 6180-6230 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was average, and the port inventory remained low, about 21000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were generally volatile, with Brent up 1.95% at sight, Brent futures up 0.33%, WTI futures up 1.30% and Dubai futures up 0.31%.

In the downstream, PX market, the domestic PX price trend this week is temporarily stable, while the external market trend is stable. The price is about 768-770 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 788-790 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain about 6800 yuan / ton in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market is a little tight this week, but due to the news of new production capacity and production, and the weak trend

of raw material market, the PTA market is mainly weak in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene price is temporarily stable, with a quotation of 6200 yuan / ton. The external quotation of o-benzene is stable, and it is expected that the weak market of o-benzene will be adjusted in the future.

III. future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. In general, toluene market is expected to continue the shock correction trend next Tuesday.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market this week showed an upward trend. The average price of ethylene at the weekend was $843.50/ton, 1.75% higher than the price at the beginning of the week of $829.00/ton, and the current price was 12.68% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: ethylene is on the rise this week. Prices in the Asian ethylene market rose sharply. As of the weekend, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $797-805 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $827-835 / ton. Prices in the European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the end of the week, the price in the European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at $909-912 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at $821-832 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the end of the week, the price was 435-447 USD / ton. Overall, the ethylene market rose. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on November 14, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 56.77 US dollars / barrel, down 0.35 US dollars or 0.6% from the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures fell to 62.28 US dollars / barrel, down 0.09 US dollars or 0.1% from the previous trading day. On the news, US crude oil production reached a record high, US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased, and US and European crude oil futures ended slightly lower. However, the oil price drop is relatively low, which can not reflect the effect of ethylene falling. In addition, OPEC forecast in the report that the growth of economic and oil demand will be stable in 2020, and the external market of ethylene will rise. After a small increase in the price of styrene in the downstream, consolidation and high consolidation of ethanol price supported the price of ethylene.

3. Future forecast:

Ethylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society thinks: at present, the periodic rebound of crude oil is temporary intermediary. Although the tension of international trade has been relieved temporarily, the root problem has not been effectively solved. The next is the impact of economic growth slowdown and the game of oil price. The market is mainly guided by the news, so the data analysts of business club expect that the price of ethylene will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future.

I. price trend

Domestic toluene market rose 4.83% this week due to the recovery of market transactions and the rebound of international crude oil prices, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, this week’s market has slightly improved, and the volume of transactions has increased. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5750-5820 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume picked up and the port inventory decreased slightly, about 26000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were generally volatile, with Brent up 1.18% at sight, Brent futures up 1.21%, WTI futures down 0.66% and Dubai futures up 2.73%.

On the downstream side, on the TDI side, the price trend of the domestic TDI market this week slightly decreased, and the average market price in East China at the weekend was about 12800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will be weak in the later period. On the PX market, the domestic PX price trend this week was temporarily stable, while the external price rose slightly. The price is about 768-770 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 788-790 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX in the short term will remain around 6800 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate steadily next week.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China rose this week, with the quotation rising 19.18% from 243.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 290.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, 58.18% higher than the same period last year. Overall, hydrochloric acid rose this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index at 76.32 on November 15.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

This week, the price of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers rose, the overall market was high consolidation. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 200 yuan / ton, temporarily stable; the weekend quotation of Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 450 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is 120 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

The market price of upstream liquid chlorine has increased, which gives certain support to hydrochloric acid. The downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane still mainly purchase hydrochloric acid according to early demand. However, the Transport Certificate in Shandong is difficult to handle, which leads to a large increase in dealer prices. The hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be high and consolidated, and the by-product acid is still impacting the market. The delivery pressure of hydrochloric acid is large, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. Analysts of business club think: the upstream liquid chlorine is good in the near future, giving hydrochloric acid some support, and the downstream rare earth and fuel demand rises, but the transportation is a problem. Business analysts believe that the recent high consolidation of hydrochloric acid market.

I. price trend:

On November 17, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 56.84, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.28% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.56% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: the market price of hydrogenated benzene this week rose slightly. By Friday, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China was 5250-5350 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. This week, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises increased slightly, the price difference with crude benzene narrowed, the loss space narrowed, the market focus moved up, and the negotiation went up significantly, among which, Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. Although the recent maintenance of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was concentrated and the overall operation decreased, the price of raw material crude benzene rose this week, and the increase of crude benzene in some regions exceeded the increase of hydrogenated benzene, The profitability of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is still below the cost line.

Industry chain: crude oil: this week’s crude oil range fluctuated, affected by economic data, progress of trade negotiations and US crude oil inventory. WTI was up 1% and Brent was up 2.46% compared with November 8. Pure benzene: at the beginning of the week, the market demand for pure benzene was weak and the price was lower. However, the reduction of hydrogenated benzene production led to the decrease of supply, driving the price of pure benzene higher in North China. Tight spot supply and drop in port inventory led to short covering, which drove the price of pure benzene to continue to rise.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, oil prices may continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of coking industry has improved, and the overall support of hydrobenzene is strong, but the power of pure benzene follow-up belt is still strong, the downstream support is limited, and the price of hydrobenzene in the future is mainly consolidated.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 15, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 12525 yuan / ton. The price fell 2.34% month on month and 2.53% year on year. The overall market is relatively strong.

II. Market analysis

Product: domestic aggregate MDI quotation range is relatively strong. Near the end of the week, the tight situation of goods in the field is hard to change. The first-class agents have been firm this week, they are reluctant to sell goods, and the downstream inquiry and purchase are weak. The market has learned that the price of 141b foaming agent has a downward trend, and the demand for rigid foam may increase in the future. The market short-term supply side tension is hard to change, and Longzhong information expects the market price consolidation to continue today.

In terms of market, North China and Shandong aggregate MDI market digested the growth, the spot market was still tight, the downstream market was the most cautious, the market high-level trading was not smooth, and the industry kept stable shipment. East China aggregate MDI market horizontal consolidation. The market continues to be tight, the middlemen stick to their offer, the downstream is cautious, and the market is limited. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. There is no obvious change in the market fundamentals, the spot market is tightening, the operators are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the market price is gradually reduced.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, Asian pure benzene Market: in January, the Buyer intends to buy 650 US dollars / ton CFR in China, and in January, the Buyer intends to buy 645-649 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: the negotiation of East China pure benzene market went up, with reference to 5400-5500 yuan / ton. Some of the offers were slightly higher, and the port inventory remained low. The external price of pure benzene continued to rise and boost, and it was difficult to find low-cost sources in the downstream. The negotiation of goods in the far month was 5250-5300 yuan / ton, and the short-term market remained stable.

Aniline: aniline market consolidation. This week, the enterprise has a ship to carry out, to prepare goods for the ship, but the northern enterprise stores the shipping pressure, and the enterprise keeps stable shipping.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2235.00 yuan / ton, down 5.89% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 70.95 on November 8.

II. Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2270 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

III. future forecast

In the middle of November, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.